2022 NFL Week 1 predictions: Picks against the spread for every game

Here we go with season 29 of NFL picks in the Post’s Bettor’s Guide.

Last season, we captured the regular-season championship and followed that up with a nice 18-8 ATS run through the postseason, including a Bengals cover and the Under in Super Bowl LVI.

This column’s been around so long, the Ravens didn’t even exist until Season 3. Let’s do it!

NEW YORK JETS (+7) over Baltimore Ravens

The Jets have a chance to smash some narratives right out of the gate.

The first is that they are still among the dregs of the NFL, one of seven teams listed at 150/1 or higher to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM. Some believe this season will be an even hotter dumpster fire than usual. In late August, ESPN released a 2023 mock draft which had the Jets picking No. 1.

A third is New York will be toast by the end of its four games against the AFC North to start the season.

If you don’t think any or all of those things aren’t possible, where have you been since, oh, 1970? But even the naysayers credit GM Joe Douglas for increasing the talent level of the team.

I’m looking forward to seeing what Mike LaFleur can do with a Michael Carter-Breece Hall combo behind a better offensive line, with Garrett Wilson and real NFL tight ends joining Elijah Moore. I’m interested to see what the defense looks like with actual edge rushers (Carl Lawson and Jermaine Johnson) and a new shutdown corner (Sauce Gardner). Lamar Jackson might not like it.

Last year’s terrible Jets team did score home wins against the playoff-bound Titans and Bengals and were a Stupid Jet Trick away from beating Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. With seven points to spare in a week when lots of crazy things happen, let’s give it a shot.

TENNESSEE TITANS (-5.5) over New York Giants

One of the most interesting stats found in The Post’s massive 2022 NFL season preview is that over the past four seasons, the Giants rank fourth in covering the spread on the road or in neutral venues at 21-12-2. Those numbers are hidden deep inside the unsuccessful tenures of Pat Shurmur and Joe Judge.

So there’s that. Another is that Brian Daboll and Wink Martindale, two AFC veterans, should know a lot more about the Titans than Mike Vrabel does about the Giants. But I’m worried the Giants don’t have enough talent, or at least healthy talent, to combat Derrick Henry on a potentially wet track where the ground game will be king. When new GM Joe Schoen uses words such as “it’s the hand we were dealt” before the first game, that’s not a good sign.

ATLANTA FALCONS (+5.5) over New Orleans Saints

Great stat from Josh Appelbaum of VSiN — divisional underdogs are 22-8 ATS in Week 1 since 2016. Yes, the Falcons could be the worst team in the NFL, but in theory you would have had the inferior team in each of those games and won 73 percent of them.

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) over CHICAGO BEARS

If there’s one team above all others fully invested in having its quarterback get off to a flying start, it’s the 49ers with Trey Lance. Bears will be a different defense without Akiem Hicks up front.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS

So many systems at play here. First is the divisional ’dog angle. Next is the Super Bowl loser jinx, which has seen those teams go 4-18 ATS in the following Week 1 over the past 22 seasons, per Action Network’s C Jackson Cowart. Then there’s one we followed all last season here: Mike Tomlin is 45-23 ATS as an underdog.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4) over DETROIT LIONS

Lot of people are loving the Lions because of “Hard Knocks,” but I don’t see the translation. Last Halloween, the Eagles destroyed them in Detroit, 44-6, and I only see Philly getting better with the additions of A.J. Brown, C.J. Gardner-Johnson and the further development of Jalen Hurts.

New England Patriots (+3.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

Have you heard the trend about divisional ’dogs in Week 1? I was stunned when the hook became available with the Patriots earlier in the week. Yes, please!

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) over WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Willing to take the small head start to see what Trevor Lawrence can do with Travis Etienne Jr. taking handoffs and Super Bowl champ Doug Pederson in his ear. I like the Commanders in general, but three of their seven wins last season were by two points or fewer, so that would work here.

Cleveland Browns (+1.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

Lost in the Deshaun Watson suspension and Baker Mayfield revenge angle is that the Browns are the better team here, and maybe by more than a little. Amari Cooper augments the Nick Chubb-Kareem Hunt ground attack, and Myles Garrett hunts Baker.

HOUSTON TEXANS (+7) over Indianapolis Colts

Divisional ’dogs in Week 1, Part 4. Like with the Falcons, I might have to avert my eyes and just look at the final score to see how we did. Colts won the two matchups by a combined 62-3 in 2021. Yet, the line has moved from Colts -8.5 to -7. Hmmm.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+1.5) over Green Bay Packers

Hot diggity, another divisional underdog! Davante Adams has left the building, and new No. 1 reciever Allen Lazard is questionable for the Pack. Interesting to see Za’Darius Smith in purple chasing after Aaron Rodgers.

Kansas City Chiefs (-6) over ARIZONA CARDINALS

K.C. traded Tyreek Hill and replaced him with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and rookie Skyy Moore. This line steamed from Chiefs -4.5 to -6 in a few days, a bad forecast for Kliff Kingsbury in the desert as his Texas Tech star Patrick Mahomes comes knocking.

Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

That crazy 35-32 season finale makes me want to take the hook with the Raiders as we finish off our six pack of divisional underdogs. The Chargers are my Super Bowl pick because I believe in Justin Herbert and their loaded roster. A narrow win would serve both causes.

DALLAS COWBOYS (+2.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Same teams met in last year’s opener, and the Bucs won a 31-29 thriller. Dallas might not match its 12-5 record, but Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs can cause problems for Tom Brady, who seemingly isn’t all there yet.

Monday

Denver Broncos (-6.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Seattle deserves to lose by three touchdowns because of those radioactive lime green uniforms alone. But that won’t be the reason here. This one’s all about Russell Wilson being unleashed to use his many new weapons — including Javonte Williams on the ground, and Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton through the air.

Best Bets

Steelers, Patriots, Browns.

Lock of the week

Steelers (Locks went 11-9 in 2021-22).

Thursday Night Football pick

Rams.