In a matchup that most expect to be a one-sided affair, the 76ers took care of business in a blowout win over the Nets on Saturday to take a 1-0 lead in the series.
And oddsmakers are expecting more of the same in Game 2.
Philadelphia enters Monday’s contest as a double-digit favorite, a bump from its pre-game price ahead of Game 1, though Brooklyn certainly won’t go down without a fight after employing an aggressive strategy in the series opener.
Here’s how we’re betting Monday’s contest, which tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
76ers vs. Nets odds
(via BetMGM)
- 76ers -10.5 (-105), moneyline -500
- Nets +10.5 (-115), moneyline +375
- O/U 212.5 (over -115)
76ers vs. Nets prediction and analysis
(7:30 p.m. ET on TNT)
If you couldn’t tell how the market feels about this game based solely on the spread, consider that nearly 75% of the money is on Philly in the hours leading up to Monday’s tip-off. And it’s not hard to understand why.
In many ways, Brooklyn’s worst fears were realized in Game 1: Mikal Bridges (30 points) did his best superstar impression against the team that drafted him; Joel Embiid (26 points) was held to one of his least-efficient performances of the season; and the Sixers still cruised to a 20-point win that never really felt close.
James Harden’s resurgence was a key reason why. The former MVP was plagued by injury in the playoffs two years ago with the Nets, and he never looked right in his first playoff run with Philadelphia a year ago.
But he showed out Saturday against his former team, dropping 23 points and 13 assists with seven made 3-pointers – tied for his most in 150 career playoff games.
That came in large part because of Brooklyn’s aggressive focus on Embiid, doubling him at nearly every turn and forcing his teammates to step up.
They did in a big way, knocking down a postseason franchise-record 21 triples on 48.8% efficiency with their fourth-highest assist-to-turnover ratio (3.56) of the entire season.
The big question ahead of Game 2: will the Nets double down on their doubling strategy, opening themselves up to a repeat of Saturday’s record shooting display?
Or do they dare play straight-up defense on the presumptive MVP, who’s just two weeks removed from a 52-point outburst and has been the league’s single-most dominant scorer all season long?
Brooklyn coach Jacque Vaughn seemed content with his team’s defensive strategy in Game 1, which implies we could see a similar approach in Game 2.
It’s certainly a gutsy call against a team that led the NBA in 3-point percentage (38.7%) and ranked eighth in assist rate (61.6%) during the regular season – all of which was on full display on Saturday.
Betting on the NBA?
It also leaves his team especially vulnerable to another blowout result like the one we saw on Saturday.
With a moneyline price of -500, it’s clear that the market expects another win from the Sixers.
The bigger question is by how much, and the Nets again opting for a high-risk approach increases the likelihood that we see an inflated final margin if Philly’s shooters are still clicking.
Consider, too, that teams coming off a dominant series-opening win tend to pay off as big favorites in the next contest.
The last seven teams to lay double digits after a Game 1 win of at least 20 points are 5-2 against the spread, winning all seven games outright by an average of 15 points.
Don’t be surprised if we see another slaughter on Monday.
76ers vs. Nets pick
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