Mr Johnson’s fate now rests in the hands of the Conservative Party despite the senior civil servant finding a ‘failure of leadership and judgement’ in Downing Street, Darren Lilleker said.
Ms Gray found evidence of ‘excessive consumption of alcohol’ and that staff ‘felt unable to raise concerns’ about breaches at Number 10.
Mr Lilleker expects Mr Johnson to soldier on but to become a sticking point for the Downing Street and Whitehall parties as well the other issues thrown up during the pandemic, such as the millions spent on unused PPE.
Mr Lilleker, professor of political communications at Bournemouth University, said: ‘From everything he has said and done, I expect Boris Johnson will try to soldier on and it’s down to the party to see if they want to get rid of him before the local elections or if they stand by him and see what the police report brings.
‘The over-riding problem is the culture and whose problem it is.
‘The report fits to an image of Boris Johnson as a guy who is more up for parties than policy details. He hasn’t seemed to be particularly sorry or keen to take responsibility.
‘That will be pushed towards senior members of staff at Downing Street who allowed these things to happen.
‘He is likely to become the velcro prime minister, a vector for all the ills that went wrong during the pandemic, whether it’s Matt Hancock’s affair, the test-and-trace problems or the PPE contracts.
‘All the parties will be seen as one mess in the eyes of the public and as he’s the one who is recognisable and has the public image, it will stick to him.
‘This is particularly so for those who suffered for adhering to the rules, it makes a mockery of those rules, particularly during that first period of lockdown where people became tired, frustrated and in some cases quite depressed as it dragged on.
‘The party might want to stick these things onto Boris and push him out, but if they carry on defending Boris they will be seen as saying all these things are ok. It’s now about how the party read these 12 pages.’
Ms Gray’s report, a summary of which has been published today ahead of a Met Police investigation into partygate, shows that the prime minister was reportedly at three of the parties.
Mr Lilleker said: ‘The key question is whether this will become the defining moment of Boris Johnson’s premiership. Trust wavered and the vaccine rollout was one of the things which saved him, but I don’t see a policy white horse charging over the horizon to save him.
‘A lot of these things appeal to some people but when they put things onto a scale of profit and loss, the loss might now be greater.
‘Johnson had a great deal of capital in those early months, when he was in hospital with Covid. But this makes all of that look like a joke.
‘That he left hospital and appeared to not be taking the pandemic seriously while telling everyone else to follow the rules. Perhaps, in the public’s mind, he will be seen as too busy enjoying a glass of wine and a laugh with the people who work in Downing Street rather than being aware of all the facts.
‘We don’t know the reality or how much effort he puts into things but the public perception of a prime minister is what counts.’
The prime minister’s spokesperson described the update as a ‘reflection of the fact there is an ongoing police investigation and the Met have been clear about what their expectations are about what can or cannot be put in the public domain while that’s ongoing’.
Mr Johnson told the House of Commons today that ‘I’m sorry for all the things we didn’t get right and also the way this matter has been handled’.
He told members that ‘we must look in the mirror and we must learn’ and that ‘I accept Sue Gray’s general findings in full’.
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