Johnson’s ‘red meat’ policy proposals are telling of his insecurity

It is a moment often seen in the downward trajectory of embattled prime ministers: a whirl of new policy ideas intended to appeal to voters, but which are in fact more often aimed at placating their own MPs. Boris Johnson is, some would argue, approaching this point.

In recent days Downing Street has briefed in favour of grammar schools and imperial measurements. Earlier weeks saw forays into other Conservative comfort zones, including bashing the EU and talking up fossil fuels.

Such nostalgia politics is routinely promoted by Conservative backbenchers. But it is one of the paradoxes of Tory party politics that the more secure a prime minister is in office, the less they have to indulge these ideas.

One reason is obvious: a popular PM with widespread support does not need to court smaller groups with niche interests. More generally, for all their currency within the party, there is not much evidence such “red meat” policies are especially popular with voters – at least those beyond the Conservative core.

Grammar schools are a fascinating example. Beloved by many Tory MPs, among them Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee of backbench Conservatives, their advocates see the mass rollout of selective education as a solution to levelling up and an obvious vote winner.

The front-page story in Monday’s Daily Telegraph, a longstanding advocate of grammars, said senior ministers are “open” to removing the ban on new selective state schools, but had met resistance from civil servants.

There is a likely reason for officials’ resistance: decades of research showing no evidence grammars assist social mobility, with middle-class parents routinely using tutoring to game 11-plus exams while poorer children disproportionately end up in less academic schools.

Polling shows they are also a hugely divisive issue, with a near-equal split between support for expanding grammar schools, keeping the current mix or abolishing them altogether. Other polling shows parents are notably less likely to support the system if they believe their child would not make the academic cut.

Broadly analogous in policy terms is fracking: popular with generally noisy backbenchers, prompting ministers to offer policy concessions, but notably more difficult to sell to the public.

While many voters like the idea of plentiful shale gas, they are inevitably less keen if the process happens near them. When the Guardian contacted all 138 MPs with fracking exploration licences in their constituencies to ask if they backed extraction locally, just five said yes.

Imperial measures are a less divisive issue with the Tory faithful, even if it is largely met with a baffled shrug by everyone else. It was, inevitably, also the Telegraph which was briefed about the idea of “bringing back” the imperial system, a slightly confusing notion given the UK has for decades used a mix of imperial and metric, depending on the circumstance.

Talking up the idea on Monday, Johnson’s spokesperson insisted imperial units were “universally understood”. Polling shows something very different – that most people use a mix, but that the younger someone is, the more likely they are to primarily use metric.

Suggesting policies that appeal mainly to your core vote is, of course, nothing new, but it is only ever one part of a successful political strategy.

At a recent Tory election strategy gathering the party chair, Oliver Dowden, outlined his “80/20” strategy, intended to defend 80 already-held marginal seats and gain 20 more. It is a bold plan, but one that would probably need imaginative policy proposals.

And yet the bulk of recent policy ideas seem based in what is, for Conservative MPs, happy and familiar ground. None are more happy and familiar than Brexit, hence the recent moves on challenging the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol and the long-promised “bonfire” of Brussels regulations.

Brexit arguably epitomises Johnson’s current policy stasis. It delivered the 2019 election, but opposition parties now barely mention it and most voters pay little attention. It is yet another issue where the Tory party risks trying to reach out to voters only to find it is largely talking to itself.