Moderna tumbles after slashing forecast for Covid vaccine sales

Moderna cut its forecast for Covid-19 vaccine sales this year, citing delays in deliveries linked to short-term supply constraints, sending its shares down more than 12 per cent in pre-market trading.

The US biotech said on Thursday it expected vaccine sales to generate revenues of $18bn-$19bn in 2022, down from a forecast in August of $21bn. This reflects deferrals of orders worth between $2bn-$3bn into 2023, according to the company.

Moderna did not specify the nature of the supply constraints. But it said third-quarter sales were affected by the timing of market authorisations for the company’s bivalent booster — which targets the dominant strain of the Omicron variant — and the related manufacturing increase.

The group reported vaccine sales of $3.1bn in the third quarter, a decrease of 35 per cent compared with the same period of 2021, and below analysts’ expectations. Its adjusted earnings of $2.53 a share missed analysts estimates of $3.29 a share, according to Refinitiv.

The downbeat forecast comes amid growing evidence of a slowdown in global demand for Covid jabs, as infection levels remain subdued and vaccine hesitancy persists in low- and middle-income nations.

Last month the Covax initiative, which supplies the vaccine to the developing world, cancelled its existing contract for the supply of jabs in 2022 from Moderna owing to weak demand. Instead the company will supply up to 100mn doses of its new bivalent booster next year.

In June the EU negotiated a deal with Moderna to adjust its vaccine contract to better meet demand throughout the region. This pushed some deliveries of its new bivalent booster to later in 2022 or early 2023.

Earlier this week Pfizer raised its 2022 sales forecast for its Covid vaccine by $2bn to $34bn, as higher prices offset a slowdown in demand outside the US. But third-quarter revenues fell 6 per cent to $22.6bn compared with the same period last year owing to weaker demand for the jabs.