With higher than estimated Christmas weekend box office results and no sign of losing momentum, Avatar: The Way of Water topped $1 billion Tuesday to become the second-biggest film of 2022, behind the $1.48 billion gross of Top Gun: Maverick.
Official Dolby Cinema poster for “Avatar: The Way of Water”
A huge second weekend tally capped by an $83.7 million Monday gross propelled Avatar: the Way of Water to $955 million in global receipts. Christmas fell on a Sunday, meaning Monday was a federal holiday in the states and turnout was especially high. This comes after a tremendous first weekend haul of $435+ million.
Then, Tuesday delivered enough receipts to carry James Cameron’s sci-fi sequel over the magical billion dollar threshold, its 14th day of release (it opened in many international markets on December 14th), leaving Avatar: The Way of Water tied with Jurassic World as the fifth-fastest movie to reach $1 billion.
The film now stands at $1.029 billion, making Avatar: The Way of Water the second-highest grossing movie of the year just two weeks into its run. It should pass $1.2+ billion next weekend, assuming it holds well through its third weekend — another holiday weekend, and since New Year’s Day falls on a Sunday, that means… you guessed it, another Monday holiday that should deliver big numbers for the Avatar sequel and could help it land around $1.3 billion by the end of the four-day weekend.
If that happens, it should silence any lingering naysayers who predict (and who seem to clearly hope) Avatar: The Way of Water won’t make it past $1.5 billion. At that box office level, the film will become 2022’s biggest release and wind up among the top 10 highest-grossing movies in cinema history.
How high on the all-time charts it climbs remains to be seen, but I admit I don’t expect it to reach $2 billion unless we see the same weekly holds and repeat business that greeted the original film, and if China’s (and other nations’) Covid surges calm soon.
But at this rate, I think Avatar: The Way of Water appears more likely to end its run somewhere in the vicinity of about $1.7 billion. It’s still early, so this is a rough guesstimate right now and I’ll want to see how things go after the New Year’s weekend and following weekdays.
Low end, I’d guess if things fall off a cliff after the holidays then the film can still make its way to $1.6 billion. High end, right now I suspect something like $1.8+/- billion is the outer limit of its trajectory. As I said, though, things could change depending on the next several days, and I might revise these expectations up or down after final receipts are counted this weekend and next week.
The original Avatar’s first theatrical release ended with $2.7+ billion in the tank, and subsequent rereleases boosted it within shooting distance of $3 billion (I remain frankly surprised the studio didn’t rerelease it on Christmas weekend for double-features bookings with the sequel in IMAX and Dolby Cinemas worldwide through the New Year to finally send the first film over the $3 billion hump).
While Avatar: The Way of Water doesn’t seem destined to repeat that $2+ billion performance, it doesn’t have to. At this point it’s easily going to cover its production and marketing costs and be the year’s biggest blockbuster hit. Remember, much of the expense was in fact shared between The Way of Water’s production and the simultaneous filming of Avatar 3, which arrives in theaters next Christmas to continue the saga.
And we have to remember, China’s box office results are severely suppressed due to an uncontrolled spread of Covid that’s crippling much of their society right now. Avatar: The Way of Water would probably be significantly higher if not for the dramatic box office underperformance in the Middle Kingdom, as well as a winter storm that closed down a lot of multiplexes in North America the past several days and kept many folks home. Then there’s the rising tide of Covid, flu, and RSV forming a trifecta of infections that further held back a lot of potential domestic audiences.
All told, Avatar: the Way of Water’s box office could be suffering from missing revenue to the tune of perhaps $150+ million so far, give or take, and by the end of its run — unless some things suddenly unexpectedly change — it might have missed out on $300+/- million in potential additional worldwide revenue.
So the story of Cameron’s Avatar sequel is still a triumph, enjoying mostly very positive critical reviews — read my full review here — from critics and even better reception from audiences around the globe, resulting in massive box office success that ensures the franchise will be blessed with long legs and plenty more revenue from additional sequels and mass merchandising of the sort only Disney can generate.
I’ll continue monitoring and updating you on the box office for Avatar: The Way of Water, dear readers, so be sure to check back here soon. Meanwhile, stay warm and if you venture to theaters for a screening of the film, don’t forget to mask up!
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