It’s the final day of the high major regular season, mixed in with a loaded conference tournament slate. It’s March, baby.
Sunday’s slate has elite teams that are likely to be No. 1 seeds come the NCAA Tournament in action, but also conference tournament matchups that pit teams trying to secure a ticket to the ‘Big Dance’ with Selection Sunday just one week away.
Here’s a diverse set of games I played for Sunday, including Houston traveling to Memphis, Northwestern taking on Rutgers in an NCAA Tournament bubble related matchup and South Alabama vs. James Madison in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament semifinals. A little bit of everything!
For more plays, check out my betstamp @ rw33 for all of my bets in real time
College Basketball betting record to date
College Basketball best bets for Sunday, March 5
- Memphis +5.5 vs. Houston
- South Alabama PK vs. James Madison
- Northwestern +5 vs. Rutgers
Memphis vs. Houston prediction and pick
Houston is going to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and well deserved, but the team has struggled with Memphis throughout Penny Hardaway’s time with the Tigers. Since Hardaway took over in 2018, Memphis is 8-2 against the spread (ATS) against Houston, that includes covering as 14.5-point road underdogs on February 18th without star point guard Kendric Davis (Houston won 72-64).
Davis has been back since that game and is showing no signs of being bothered by his bulky ankle. There may not be a more impactful offensive player than the SMU transfer, the Tigers play like a top 30 offense when he is on the floor, but operate like a bottom 100 one when he is off of it, per Hoop-Explorer.
Memphis has been the best three-point shooting team in AAC play, hitting 36% of their perimeter looks, and also are tops in free throw rate.
While Houston’s defense is arguably the best in the country, the team’s compact interior lends itself to getting bombed by a high volume of three’s — the Cougars 43% three-point rate allowed is the second highest in league games– and they also have the third highest free throw rate allowed.
Memphis can get up shots from deep and also generate free throw trips to stay within this two possession spread against a team they have historically had success with relative to expectations.
PICK: Memphis +5.5
South Alabama vs. James Madison prediction and pick
South Alabama pulled away in the second half against No. 1 seed in the Sun Belt Tournament Southern Mississippi on Saturday afternoon, making it 10 wins in their last 12 games.
While this team entered the tournament as the No. 8 seed, they have been anything but that of late. Since February 1st, the Jaguars have been the 24th best team in the country, per Bart Torvik. The team is shutting down the interior for opponents around big man Kevin Samuel, holding foes to below 45% on two’s (19th best in the country), and are operating at a high level on offense with Isaiah Moore creating for himself and his teammates (the team is top 20 in effective field goal percentage).
The team faces James Madison, who they beat in Mobile back in January 63-62. The Jaguars led for much of that game despite a late push from the Dukes as they survived turning the ball over 20 times, a season high.
However, that’s an outlier, not the norm. South Alabama is 12th in the country in terms of turnover rate this season. Yes, JMU turns foes over at a Sun Belt high rate at over 20%, but that number has dropped to 17% since the beginning of February as teams have wised up to their ball pressure defense, which is right around the national average.
South Alabama has been the best team in the conference by a wide margin over the past month or so, I’m riding the hot hand on Sunday.
PICK: South Alabama PK
Northwestern vs. Rutgers prediction and pick
Rutgers is trending in the wrong direction ahead of the NCAA Tournament, and the margin for error is shrinking. However, oddsmakers have installed the Scarlett Knights as five point home favorites against Northwestern on Sunday night.
The Scarlett Knights haven’t been the same since the team lost Mawot Mag for the season back on February 7th. While his numbers don’t scream impact offensive player, the team is depleted of wing options on that side of the floor, and it shows. Rutgers’ offense is scoring five points less per 100 possessions when he is off the floor.
Since losing him for the year, a 2-5 stretch for the team, Rutgers offense is 318th in effective field goal percentage.
Now the team hosts Northwestern, who has thrived as an underdog all season, 10-5 ATS when catching points. The team has been generating turnovers at a high level (tops in the Big Ten in conference play) and have a standout guard in Boo Buie, who has kept the offense afloat as the team has gone from a non contender for an NCAA Tournament berth to a lock ahead of Selection Sunday.
The Wildcats don’t have the most potent offense, the team is 12th in Big Ten effective field goal percentage, they don’t turn the ball over and get to the free throw rate at a high level. Given the teams bottom 60 tempo, the games are grinds and points are valuable.
Rutgers continues to get credit in the market due to their stifling defense, best in the Big Ten, and strong historical home court advantage, but the team hasn’t won on their home floor since February 1st against Minnesota. Not to mention that the drop-off in offensive production without Mag is even more impactful when laying points given that each team plays at such a slow tempo.
I can’t trust Rutgers offense to win with margin in a game that should have a limited amount of possessions.
PICK: Northwestern +5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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