NCAA Tournament first round bets to make before the lines move

Take a deep breath. Selection Sunday has come and gone, and you now have what feels like a million games to chew on until the (March) madness commences on Thursday afternoon.

You, dear reader, have a lot going on to prepare for the start of the NCAA Tournament, whether it’s filling out your bracket or joining different pools, but what about firing a few bets for the first round? The lines for each matchup dropped shortly after the bracket reveal and I’ve placed a handful of bets for Thursday and Friday.

It’s in your benefit to get your bets in early in the week as the market matures quickly and every point matters. You can find all of my bets in real time on my betstamp @ rw33, but here are four plays I’ve made for the first round that are worth getting in now.

College basketball betting record to date

204-173-3, +29.55U

NCAA Tournament First Round best bets

• Furman +5.5 vs. Virginia
• San Diego State -5 vs. Charleston
• Kennesaw State +11.5 vs. Xavier
• Montana State +8.5 vs. Kansas State

Furman vs. Virginia prediction and pick

This is a battle of two teams trending in opposite directions. While momentum may not continue from regular season into tournament play, the numbers are staggering for the Virginia offense, which is 163rd in adjusted offensive efficiency since February 1st, according to Bart Torvik.

The Woos can’t shoot, 287th in effective field goal percentage and they don’t generate second chances, outside the top 300 in that metric over their last 12 games. It doesn’t help that lost their floor spacing big man Ben Vander Plas for the rest of the season to a broken hand ahead of the ACC Tournament.

While they are facing a mid-major in Furman that doesn’t bolster a ton of side and is vulnerable on the glass, the Paladins are a stout three-point defense and Virginia’s reluctance to crash the glass is going to hurt them here.

I mentioned adjusted offensive efficiency above, but that factors in the quality of competition that teams play. While Furman didn’t play an ACC schedule, the team still checked in 33rd overall this season in adjOE, per KenPom. If you strip out the other inputs, they were the fourth best offense in raw offensive efficiency this season, per TeamRankings.com. For reference, Virginia was 67th this season.

The Paladins check in 13th nationally three-point rate, but it’s their ability to stretch the floor that creates efficient looks inside, the team is the best two-point offense in the country, hitting over 59% of their interior looks. With the danger of the long ball, Virginia’s normally compact defense is going to be opened up.

Virginia’s offense is a big concern against the explosive Paladins offense. I’ll back the mid-major to make some noise.

PICK: Furman +5.5

San Diego State vs. Charleston prediction and pick

There are several matchup advantages for San Diego State in this matchup, who should pull away and cover against the CAA champs.

The Cougars are incredibly reliant on their three-point shooting, taking the 10th most in the country, but will be running into a juggernaut defensively in the Aztecs, who are 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency with their stifling perimeter defense that is holding foes to below 30% from beyond the arc.

The Cougars have played one team rated in KenPom’s top 50, North Carolina, losing 102-86 on the road. The team’s defense has been lightly tested in the mid-major ranks and SDSU can provide a shock to their system with their ability to get downhill and finish at the rim. The Aztecs are top 50 in the country in near proximity field goal percentage, per Haslametrics, while Charleston is 279th defending it against a much softer schedule.

San Diego State played the 10th strongest schedule while Charleston is 295th in that same rating, according to Haslametrics. I think the regular season difficulty is going to pay off on Thursday.

I expect the Aztecs to dictate the pace as well, the team allows the lowest frequency of transition opportunities in the country. That’s a problem for the up-tempo Cougars attack that is 30th in adjusted tempo and have nearly 30% of their offense come in transition, per Hoop-Math. If Charleston can’t run, their offense takes a hit, 273rd in non transition effective field goal percentage.

While Mountain West teams have struggled in the NCAA Tournament recently, I think this matchup is a nightmare for the Cougars and the Aztecs roll.

PICK: San Diego State -5

Kennesaw State vs. Xavier prediction and pick

Xavier was a team I was angling to fade in the NCAA Tournament, and this matchup sets up perfectly for Kennesaw State to stay close to the Musketeers.

The Owls are into their first ever NCAA Tournament, but this team is familiar with playing high level competition this season, losing by 10 at Florida, three at VCU and was tied at Indiana before losing by 14 at Assembly Hall. Overall, this team has covered nine out of 12 times as an underdog this season.

The team is an elite three-point shooting group that can match Xavier’s perimeter prowess as well, Kennesaw State hits is 33rd in three-point percentage while Xavier checks in third in that metric. If KSU is able to get big man Jack Nunge in motion and guard Terrell Burden can get into the paint to create open looks off of screens, this game is going to be back-and-forth throughout.

If you take out adjustments for the Xavier defense on KenPom, you see that there are some serious issues for the team on that side of the ball, the team is 172th in raw defensive efficiency, per TeamRankings.

The Owls can also keep a lid on Xavier with their constant changing of defensive schemes. Amir Abdur-Rahim has his team throwing different looks at opponents often, including a press that can cause issues for Xavier, who is 129th in turnover percentage.

This will not be an easy first round matchup for Sean Miller’s Musketeers with the Owls’ ability to gash the overrated Xavier defense.

PICK: Kennesaw State +11.5

Montana State vs. Kansas prediction and pick

Another vulnerable No. 3 seed is Kansas State, who has plenty of issues heading into their first round matchup against Big Sky champs Montana State.

While the Big 12 was the best conference in college hoops this season, that also leads to a lot of inflated rankings when adjusting for strength of schedule. Take Kansas State, who checks in 52nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency. However, the raw numbers are concerning. The team is 139th in raw offensive efficiency and 38th on the defensive side of the ball.

While the team is battle tested, the numbers show that they may not be as highly rated as one may think, making them ripe to let down bettors as big favorites.

They face a Montana State team that is elite on the defensive side of the ball and can put some pressure on the No. 3 seed. Kansas State’s turnover woes are a big concern in this one, the team is 299th in turnover percentage, which is going to be magnified against the Bobcats defense that is top 75 in the country in forcing TO’s.

Further, Danny Sprinkle’s group is a physical one, getting to the free throw line at a top five clip nationally and hitting 76% of their freebies, the 32nd best mark in the country. Kansas State is shaky in this regard, sending foes to the line at the 65th highest rate in the country.

Lastly, is Kansas State overvalued because of their home success? The team sees the seventh biggest drop-off when they leave the ‘Little Apple’ of Manhattan, Kansas, according to Haslametrics.

The Bobcats made the NCAA Tournament last year and got blasted by a Big 12 foe in Texas Tech. I think this experienced group avoids a blowout and shocks an overrated Kansas State team.

Full disclosure, I did get a +9.5 on this one, but I still would play this at +8.5.

PICK: Montana State +8.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.