UConn vs. Gonzaga prediction and odds for NCAA Tournament Elite Eight

Gonzaga advanced to the Elite Eight in epic fashion, avoiding a double digit meltdown in the final three minutes on a Julian Strawther 3 in the final seconds to defeat UCLA.

Now, the No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs face No. 4 UConn in the West Regional Finals on Saturday night with a spot in the Final Four on the line. The Huskies have dominated the field thus far, winning all three games by double digits, and they are starting to realize their ceiling as a National Championship contender.

Can the Huskies find an answer for Drew Timme and the high octane Bulldogs offense?

Here are the odds for Saturday’s Elite Eight:

UConn vs. Gonzaga odds, spread and total

UConn vs. Gonzaga prediction and pick

The Huskies have answers for Timme on the post with both Adama Sanogo and backup big man, 7’2″ freshman Donovan Clingan, to handle him in single coverage. Timme will surely get his, he just had 36 points on 16-of-24 shooting against UCLA, it’s the rest of the Bulldogs roster that I struggle to see holding up.

UConn won’t need to double the big man, and the Huskies have the length on defense to funnel the Bulldogs off the 3-point line and into the paint, where the team locks opponents down. The Huskies allow the 10th lowest three-point rate in the country while also bolstering the 14th best two-point defense.

While Gonzaga has the best offense in the country, per advanced metric websites like KenPom, Mark Few’s group rallied from a double digit halftime deficit due to its offensive rebounding, not its overwhelming offense. The team grabbed 16 offensive boards, offsetting the team’s overall poor showing on that end outside of Timme. Non-Timme Bulldogs shot 37% from the field in the win.

However, UConn is elite on the glass. The team is second in the country in rebound percentage and more than comfortable playing at Gonzaga’s pace. UCLA seemingly ran out of gas due to injuries and their short rotation after a frenetic first half, but the Huskies have the depth to keep up with Gonzaga.

Not to mention, the team beat Arkansas by 23 on Thursday night while Gonzaga had an emotional and exhausting effort.

On offense, Danny Hurley’s team should continue to operate at a high level against a porous Gonzaga defense. The Bulldogs continue to get broken down off the dribble, and allow a ton of shots in the paint. Overall, the team is 235th in effective field goal percentage allowed and right around the national average in forcing turnovers. UCLA had plenty of clean looks in the second half to keep Gonzaga at arms length but continued to leave them short, likely due to tired legs given the team was down two key contributors due to injury.

I don’t see that being the case with the likes of Sanogo down low for the Huskies. Overall, the Huskies are 29th in effective field goal percentage, but it’ll be its offensive rebounding that is the second highest in the country that is the difference against a vulnerable Zaga defense.

UConn is more physical, more complete and has more in the tank. This Gonzaga defense has been its Achilles heel all season, and it’ll catch up to them against the Huskies on Saturday night.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.