AI Model Developed To Predict Rainfall Level During Monsoon In India: How It Works

A team of researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi along with international scientists have developed an AI-based model that can predict rainfall in monsoon.

New Delhi: The popularity of so-called generative Artificial Intelligence (AI), which uses data to create new content like ChatGPT’s human-sounding prose, has captured everyone’s attention. Researchers and experts have found new ways to experiment with AI and develop new tools that will help humankind. A team of researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi along with international scientists have developed an AI-based model that can predict rainfall in monsoon.

The IIT Delhi, in a statement, said the AI-based model has been developed in collaboration with Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), US and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC). “This study holds immense significance for the entire country, as an accurate monsoon forecast well ahead of time is pivotal for making crucial decisions in various socioeconomic sectors, including agriculture, energy, water resources, disaster management, and health,” Professor Saroj K. Mishra, of the DST Centre of Excellence in Climate Modeling and Professor at the Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT Delhi.

How The AI Model Works

The model predicted an All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) of about 790 mm in the upcoming monsoon season, meaning a normal monsoon. It demonstrated a remarkable forecast success rate of 61.9 per cent for the test period of 2002-2022. This is based on whether the model is able to predict the AISMR within plus or minus 5 per cent of the actual values observed each year.

The data-driven techniques will provide state-wise monsoon rainfall prediction which will help later for regional applications. The AI model predicted that India will see a normal monsoon this year.

“A handful of people running these models on a personal computer within a limited time can provide a more accurate monsoon rainfall forecast compared to the resource intensive process with traditional physical models,” an official was quoted as saying in a report by Times of India.