Air Force vs. Utah State prediction and odds for Tuesday, February 14

The Mountain West is always one of the most interesting basketball conferences in the country, but right now it only has one team in the AP Top 25, that’s San Diego State.

That doesn’t mean the conference can’t produce other intriguing games, like this one. Utah State is in fourth in the conference at 19-7 (8-5) and Air Force is a bit farther down, 13-13 (4-9), but these contrasting styles will make for an interesting watch.

Last time these teams met, Utah State won it, 77-65 on the road, and now it is a 12.5-point favorite at home.

Air Force vs. Utah State odds, spread and total

Air Force vs. Utah State prediction and pick

When you think of military academies and football, you think of the running game, and long offensive drives.

Think the same thing when you think about Air Force basketball.

The Falcons are 355th out of 363 teams in possessions per game. One of the slowest paced teams in the nation. Despite their slow pace, they are 70th in field goal percentage and that has led them to be 290th in scoring offense.

Meanwhile they’re 90th in scoring defense and will need to play even better than that to stop Utah State.

The Aggies average 79 points a game and are 18th in offensive efficiency. A lot of that efficiency comes from their stellar 3-point shooting. The 3-point line is what will ultimately decide this game.

They are first in the country in 3-point percentage, 41.1%, but Air Force is 19th in opponent 3-point percentage, 29.7%. On the other end, Utah State is 361 out of 363 in opponent 3-point percentage, 36.1%, and Air Force shoots it at a 35.5% clip good for 113th.

In summary Utah State can shoot the lights out, but it lets its opponent rain down shots from deep too. The over is 15-9-1 in Utah State’s games, so despite Air Forces’ painfully slow pace, I’ll take the over.

Pick: Over 138 (-110)

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change