Are the New XBB COVID Variants Increasing in Colorado?

Many experts are concerned that the latest variants could trigger a new COVID-19 surge. But while AnneMarie Harper, communications director for the CDPHE’s division of Disease Control and Public Health Response, isn’t sounding similar alarms yet, she expects XBB.1 and XBB.1.5 will bring an end to the rise of BQ.1 and BQ1.1 here.

“We anticipate that these variants will become dominant in Colorado,” she notes, referring to XBB.1 and XBB.1.5.

Yesterday, January 4, the CDPHE announced plans to close Colorado’s twenty remaining COVID-19 community testing sites on January 15, since most residents now confirm cases with home kits that are provided free at 200 distribution centers statewide. But the department also extended its COVID-19 public-health order, which includes requirements regarding hospital reporting and bed capacity, through at least the end of January.

Spokesperson Harper confirms that “BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 have evidence of relatively higher immune evasion when compared to other variants. This gives these variants a growth advantage over other variant types and has led to them out-competing prior Omicron variants, causing a greater share of new infections in Colorado. However, newer variants XBB.1 and XBB.1.5 have additional advantages and are becoming predominant in other parts of the United States.”

For the week ending December 31, 2022, the Nowcast model maintained by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention “estimates that BQ.1 accounts for 18.3 percent of all new cases in the United States, and BQ1.1 accounts for 26.9 percent,” Harper continues. “Nationally, XBB.1.5 appears to be gaining dominance, particularly in the Northeast, where it is now the dominant subvariant. For Region 8, which includes Colorado, the Nowcast estimates that BQ.1.1 and BQ.1 together make up over 75 percent of circulating variants, with XBB.1.5 estimated to be just over 2 percent. While BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 appear to have a growth advantage over prior subvariants, they are likely to be outpaced by XBB.1.5 based on what we’re seeing in other regions of the country.”

A December analysis by scientists from the University of Michigan and Columbia University published by the medical journal Cell found that BQ.1, BQ1.1 and the two XBBs are “barely susceptible to neutralization” by either the earlier COVID-19 vaccines or bivalent boosters. One excerpt reads: “Together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies.”

Nonetheless, Harper remains bullish on boosters. In her words, “The Omicron vaccine appears to help protect against severe illness from newer COVID-19 variants. … Vaccines are the safest, most effective way to slow the spread of COVID-19 and its variants and to help avoid the worst outcomes — severe illness, hospitalization and death — among those who do become infected.” She points out that Colorado has the twelfth-highest rate of Omicron booster use in the U.S., but the latest CDPHE count, updated on January 4, shows that only a little over a quarter of residents — 25.3 percent — have gotten the shot thus far.

Here are other updated CDPHE figures in major categories from January 4:

1,736,198 cases
74,288 hospitalized
13,886 deaths among cases
14,582 deaths due to COVID-19
10,410 outbreaks

And these are the details for the past seven days:

Cases reported this week: 3,823, down 1,502
Cases reported for previous weeks: 443
Seven-day positivity rate: 8.6 percent
Currently hospitalized: 281, down 25
New hospital admissions: 513, down 39

Four takeaways from the fresh data:

• Weekly case counts hovered above the 8,000 mark for much of November and December, but less than half that sum, 3,823, was registered over the past seven days. Future reports will determine if this fallout represents an ongoing trend or was a result of the falloff in reporting that has occurred over holidays throughout the pandemic.

• The two measures related to new COVID-19 fatalities show that the disease is still taking a distressing number of lives. From December 14 to January 4, deaths among cases averaged 48 per week, while the weekly average for deaths specifically traced to COVID landed at 46.

• The state’s seven-day average positivity rate of 9 percent on January 4 was nearly double the 5 percent mark despite home testing, whose results are not counted by the CDPHE.

• Nonetheless, hospital metrics continue to decline. The 281 people receiving treatment for COVID-19 on January 4 is down substantially from 395 on December 14. Likewise, new hospital admissions fell from 695 for the seven days ending December 14 to 513 on January 4.

In contrast, COVID-19 outbreaks, which are now mainly tracked at health-care facilities, including those that specialize in seniors, have generally remained steady. The CDPHE identified 37 new or tweaked outbreak sites on January 4, only slightly lower than the forty on December 14.

The latest additions are listed below, along with information about categories, county of origin, and the date when the spread was officially recognized. The department no longer provides details regarding the overall number of infections or deaths, or whether they pertain to residents, staff members or attendees, until the outbreaks have been resolved.

1. Apple Tree Assisted Living (2305I0): December 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, El Paso County, 1/3/2023
2. Arvada Care and Rehabilitation Center (020415): December 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Jefferson County, 12/28/2022
3. Balfour Cherrywood Village (2303Z4): December 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Boulder County, 12/30.2022
4. Bonaventure of Colorado Springs (23U243): December 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, El Paso County, 1/3/2023
5. Bridge Assisted Living At Life Care Center Of Greeley (23036H): November 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Weld County, 11/14/2022
6. Brookdale Fort Collins Assisted Living (2303WA): December 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Larimer County, 12/30/2022
7. Clear Creek Care Center (020401): December 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Adams County, 12/29/2022
8. Cliffview Assisted Living Center (23080R): December 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Grand County, 12/28/2022
9. Colorado State Penitentiary: December 202, State Prison, Fremont County, 12/27/2022
10. Continuing Care at Wind Crest (02H136): December 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Douglas County, 12/13/2022
11. Continuing Care at Wind Crest (23A843): December 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Douglas County, 12/28/2022
12. Covenant Village Assisted Living (230432): December 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Jefferson County, 12/30/2022
13. Evergreen Nursing Home (021065): December 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Alamosa County, 12/13/2022
14. Gardens On Quail (23U764): December 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Jefferson County, 12/29/2022
15. Health Center at Franklin Park (020439): December 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Denver County, 11/30/2022
16. Lakewood Reserve (23R738): November 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Jefferson County, 11/29/2022
17. Lighthouse Assisted Living, Inc-Irwin House (23R935): December 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Arapahoe County, 12/28/2022
18. Lincoln Meadows Senior Living (23D500): January 2023, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Douglas County, 12/20/2022
19. Madison House (231211): December 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Montezuma County, 1/3/2023
20. Melody Living of Colorado Springs (23P166): December 2022 #2, Healthcare, Assisted Living, El Paso County, 12/27/2022
21. Mountain Vista Assisted Living & Memory Care (2304SY): December 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Jefferson County, 12/28/2022
22. San Carlos Correctional Facility: December 2022, State Prison, Pueblo County, 1/3/2023
23. Someren Glen Assisted Living (2304VQ): December 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Arapahoe County, 1/3/2023
24. Spruce House (23C703): December 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, El Paso County, 12/28/2022
25. Sunrise at Pinehurst (23049U): December 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Denver County, 12/30/2022
26. The Carillon at Boulder Creek Assisted Living (23V719): December 2022 #2, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Boulder County, 12/28/2022
27. The Center at Centerplace, LLC (02Z779): November 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Weld County, 11/1/2022
28. The Commons of Hilltop (23T695): December 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Mesa County, 12/30/2022
29. The Fountains of Hilltop (2311QA): January 2023, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Mesa County, 12/30/2022
30. The Rehabilitation Center at Sandalwood (020465): December 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Jefferson County, 12/27/2022
31. The Suites at Someren Glen Care Center (020471): December 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Arapahoe County, 12/30/2022
32. ThriveCare (23W354): December 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Jefferson County, 12/28/2022
33. ThriveCare Indore LLC (23R696), Healthcare, Assisted Living, Jefferson County, 12/28/2022
34. ThriveCare Yarrow (23S294): December 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Jefferson County, 12/28/2022
35. Trinidad Inn Nursing Home (020796): January 2023, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Las Animas County, 1/3/2023
36. Vi at Highlands Ranch Assisted Living (23H132): November 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Douglas County, 11/4/2022
37. Vi at Highlands Ranch Skilled Nursing (02M203): November 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Douglas County, 11/16/2022