Art Basel/UBS art market report predicts an all-time high in 2022

The global economy might be headed for a slowdown, but trade in art looks to reach record levels this year with spending on track to more than double in 2022, according to the latest Arts Economics survey of more than 2,700 collectors worldwide. The findings, compiled by Clare McAndrew for Art Basel and UBS, reveal collector concerns over their carbon footprint now that in-person events are back — though not to the extent that art-shoppers want to rein in their own travel plans.

McAndrew’s report finds that global imports of art and antiques, highly correlated with sales in the market, rose 41 per cent to $26.6bn in 2021 and are up a further 19 per cent in 2022, using aggregated data from countries reporting in the first six months of the year — the majority by value, McAndrew confirms.

The value of art exports increased too, by 47 per cent in the same six-month period, having already grown 38 per cent last year, and after a slump in the pandemic year of 2020, the report finds.

For the first half of this year, the survey finds that the median expenditure on fine art, decorative art and antiques was $180,000, higher than for all of 2021 ($164,000) and estimated to rise to $372,000 by the end of this year.

McAndrew cautions some over-optimism on the part of buyers, who were surveyed in August, but says the preliminary findings suggest that cross-border trade in art will still “likely reach an historical peak” in 2022.

The report shows how the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic didn’t touch those collectors spending more than $1mn on art each year. These bigger spenders have risen from 18 per cent of respondents in 2019 to 29 per cent in the first half of 2022 — with 34 per cent planning to spend at least $1mn by year end, including 14 per cent who estimate spending more than $10mn. 

Art fairs are back in force and favour, with 338 live events in the planning for this year, a fall of only 6 per cent (22 fairs) from the pre-pandemic year of 2019 and a considerable rise from the 130 live events held in 2020. New fairs on the scene include two from the major players, namely Frieze Seoul and Paris+ par Art Basel.

This might all be good news for the art market, but a sobering, recurring theme in McAndrew’s recent reports is that while collectors voice growing concerns about the environmental impact of their high-end hobby and show a willingness to pay a premium for sustainable options, the majority (77 per cent) seem unfussed by their own aviation emissions and plan overall to travel more to events next year. Only 12 per cent say they expect to reduce their trips, and the vast majority of these (83 per cent) say that this is primarily due to the risks of Covid-19.

“In some ways, the art market is more sustainable than other luxury sectors — art is not a disposable item — but travel is the elephant in the room,” McAndrew tells the Financial Times.

Meanwhile, there has been only a “slight shift” in behaviour towards a de-globalised, more locally focused scene, McAndrew finds, as trade consolidates further within a smaller number of market hubs, primarily New York, London and Hong Kong.

Collecting too has become more concentrated. Across all regions combined, the Boomer generation (defined as aged between 58 and 75) generally spent at the highest levels and tended towards artists who were familiar to them and from galleries they already knew. Collectors from Asia were found to be more open-minded with just over half those surveyed in mainland China reporting that they dealt only with new galleries this year, by far the highest percentage overall.

Paintings are still the most popular medium, accounting for 23 per cent of collections, with sculpture in the second slot at 12 per cent. In the next 12 months, 80 per cent of collectors planned to buy paintings, with sculpture again the next most popular medium with a 55 per cent interest.

There is still demand for Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) despite the crypto winter. The report records that the value of sales of digital art with an NFT fell from $2.4bn in the second half of 2021 to $610mn in the first six months of this year. But art collectors are still on board: their median spend here reached $46,000 in the first half of this year, up from $44,000 last year. They expect to spend a median $96,000 in this field in 2022.

Online buying options have grown increasingly attractive after the investment made by art businesses during the pandemic. But the report finds overall that “While the pandemic offered an example of how the market might function differently, the desire for [high net worth] collectors to see artworks in person, particularly higher-priced works, versus the sustainability of doing so, is still swinging very much in favour of the former.”

‘A Survey of Global Collecting in 2022’ is at https://www.artbasel.com/about/initiatives/the-art-market