‘Avatar’ Could Top $3 Billion With Rerelease And Christmas Double Features

After a $31 million first weekend in rerelease, James Cameron’s sci-fi blockbuster Avatar is setting the stage for the sequel Avatar: The Way of Water to rule the box office this holiday season. But another big story at year’s end could be a major history-making moment for cinema — if theaters screen Avatar and its sequel as double-features for Christmas, the 2009 picture could become the first movie to top $3 billion.

With 4K remastering and 3D boosting interest and ticket prices, Avatar’s current two-week limited rerelease looks to push the film’s lifetime gross toward $2.9 billion in global receipts. Consider, too, that while it qualifies as a wide release, its domestic screen footprint was 1,980 — or about half (or less) than a typical blockbuster release, which still didn’t prevent it from being the #1 film over the weekend.

When Avatar: The Way of Water arrives in theaters on December 16th, it will have the holiday box office mostly to itself in terms of big blockbuster competition (there are certainly a few other films likely to perform especially well, but nothing like the multi-billion dollar level of Cameron’s sequel). I’ve said before I expect it will perform at least north of $1.5 billion (my current low-end prediction) if there’s no external factors that seriously disrupt film attendance over the holidays (Covid, post-election social turmoil, or war in Europe, for example), and more likely a performance topping $2 billion.

In that highly favorable environment, there’s a very good chance that another Avatar rerelease at Christmas — especially if it’s 4K, 3D, and includes more of the deleted scenes for an extended theatrical edition — could be popular as a double feature through the holiday and into the New Year. In that scenario, it wouldn’t take much for Cameron’s groundbreaking first Avatar film to land at $3 billion.

This is especially true if The Way of Water is as good and crowd-pleasing as I expect (based on everything we’ve seen about it so far, plus the first film itself, plus pretty much everything else Cameron’s made so far). The sequel has potential to gross far north of $2 billion if it lives up to expectations. The VFX alone appear to be another huge leap forward that will redefine what we expect from movies, and the 3D is supposed to be brilliant as well.

If this is indeed another standard-setter, then expect a recurrence of multiple trips to the multiplex by large numbers of audience members around the world, and renewed interest in revisiting the first film again. Which makes a double feature with the remastered original all the more enticing, and thus all the more profitable.

Even if the first Avatar fails to reach $3 billion this time around, remember that we’ve got three more sequels coming out over the next six years, one every other year through Christmas of 2028. That means three more chances at rerelease for the 2009 film — and of course, likely rereleases of each additional sequel, letting the entire franchise double- and triple-dip to continue boosting their individual and collective box office grosses.

In that scenario, it seems inevitable that Avatar will slowly amass enough ticket sales to steadily add the final $100 million or less that it needs to reach $3 billion. I’d even say there’s a pretty solid chance The Way of Water could also wind up achieving a similar feat, giving Cameron’s franchise two films atop the all-time box office charts at a level few other films have any hope of matching any time soon.

It’s bizarre and also amusing that, despite all evidence pointing to these possible — if not likely — outcomes, there remains a segment of media and fandom who still hold to the notion somehow Avatar is irrelevant to modern culture and the sequel is doomed to failure. Much of this is, for some of those would-be pundits, just wishful thinking driven by whatever resentment or other ulterior motives they have against Cameron and/or his franchise. But for some, it really seems to be driven by deeply flawed logic and reasoning that blinds them to the operating realities of the box office and this particular film series.

Regardless of those naysayers and the faux-debate egged on by some media outlets with clickbait articles, the truth is few who understand cinema have much doubt that Avatar: The Way of Water will be an enormous blockbuster come Christmas, or that the original Avatar has a good shot at reaching $3 billion if and when it gets some additional rerelease.

I dare say, if the current rerelease were longer than two weeks, it could easily push toward $2.92+ billion and reduce the distance to the $3 billion finish line. But even short of that outcome this time around, Avatar has already proven it retains pop culture relevance and immense popularity around the world, and is setting the stage for the sequels to prove the longevity of Cameron’s vision.