‘Barbie’ Parties Toward 2023 Best $1+ Billion Worldwide Box Office

The whole world is partying with Barbie to the tune of nearly $580 million in just one week of release. This weekend will send the blockbuster toy adaptation past $700+ million, ensuring Barbie will soon top $1+ billion in worldwide box office. At this rate, Barbie will soon be 2023’s best box office hit.

Barbie — scripted by Greta Gerwig (who also directed) and Noah Baumbach, starring Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling as Barbie and Ken — should top $730 million worldwide over its second weekend, but these estimates are all up in the air to a large extent because of the film’s consistent over-performance even on weekdays.

Low-end estimates are still north of $700 million for Barbie, in the range of perhaps $720+ million, while a higher-end outcome could see the film soar beyond $750+ million. All depends on whether the phenomenal word of mouth and must-see pop culture status will drive bigger attendance and repeat viewings than expected, and if it can siphon enough viewership from Disney newcomer Haunted Mansion.

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But anyone who thinks there might be obstacles ahead for Barbie just hasn’t been paying attention. There are no signs of Barbie slowing down — if anything, it is seeing increased attention and interest, with some days sporting increases in attendance rather than the typical slow declines, including even on weekdays.

Advance ticket sales are through the roof and setting records for second weekend attendance, and we already know how much audiences and critics are raving about it to anyone who’ll listen, which all points to a stronger-than-average hold for a film that’s defied expectations right out the gate.

Based on those indicators, then, I’m bullish on Barbie, and expect to see sophomore weekend receipts push the film north of $750 million and maybe as high as $760+ million. My best guess is $765+/- million, but I want to see Friday’s sales numbers before I’m convinced, so I’ll stick with a rough $750-760 million range for now.

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Which means we should expect Barbie to hit the magic $1 billion threshold sometime between its third and fourth weekends — as early as Sunday of weekend #3, and as late as Sunday of weekend #4.

For now, my expectation is Barbie will finish its third weekend with somewhere in the vicinity of $950+/- million, and topping $1 billion early on its fourth weekend. But with Barbie over-performing every day so far and enjoying historic daily holds, it wouldn’t take much for it to reach $1 billion on weekend #3.

Regardless of whether it takes a few more days to pocket one billion dollars, Barbie is now destined to become the biggest film of 2023. It needs just $1.35 billion to pass The Super Mario Brothers Movie, and shouldn’t have a hard time doing so. The real question is, just how high might Barbie climb before it’s all said and done?

If Barbie does hit $1 billion on its third weekend, then I’d very roughly guesstimate it takes the 2023 box office crown by weekend #6, if not sooner. At the latest, it might take an extra week if for any reason attendance slows after the next couple of weekends. Either way, Barbie should reach $1.35+ billion in less than two months of release, and more likely in under a month and a half.

There is no serious competition capable of drawing any significant portion of Barbie’s audience away for at least another month or more.

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Haunted Mansion is tracking toward a modest $50+ million bow this weekend and will probably be another big-budget underperformer, and the only challengers in August are Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutan Mayhem the first week of the month and Strays around mid-August. Those films could (and probably will) have healthy family attendance, but still not enough to significantly hurt Barbie’s performance. Blue Beetle will probably be a non-factor, since I expect another DCEU box office disappointment there.

So yes, it’s a Barbie world and we’re just living in it for the next several weeks. I’ll be back soon with more box office updates and predictions, so stay tuned and be sure to check back here again soon, dear readers.