Baylor vs. Texas prediction and odds for Monday, January 30 (Bears set for road cover)

Two teams jockeying for position atop the Big 12 meet in Austin on Monday night.

Texas hosts Baylor with each team looking to compile resume building wins ahead of not only Selection Sunday but also the Big 12 Tournament in hopes of being tops in the toughest conference in college hoops this season.

Both teams are paced by top 10 offenses, but each team’s defense is a concern moving forward in March. Will one team’s defense be exposed on Monday and provide us with a valuable bet?

Here are the odds for Monday’s marquee matchup:

Baylor vs. Texas odds, spread and total

Baylor vs. Texas prediction and pick

Each team’s defense is outside the top 100 nationally per Bart Torvik since the beginning of January, a concerning sign moving forward. However, Baylor has offset some of their defensive struggles with the best offense in the country in that span led by future lottery pick Keyonte George and veteran guard Adam Flagler, among others.

The Longhorns have been fouling at an alarming rate, which is a big concern against Baylor’s guard play that has this club shooting over 77% from the charity stripe. Not to mention, they are relentless on the glass, leading all Big 12 teams in offensive rebounding rate.

Texas is an elite team as well, led by guards Marcus Carr and Tyrese Hunter, but the defense has been a huge concern since the team fired Chris Beard and I’m concerned that the team can contain Baylor’s set of ball handlers. Carr and forward Timmy Allen are both minus defenders, and I expect Bears’ head coach Scott Drew have his ball handlers hunt those mismatches at will for all 40 minutes.

On offense, Texas is going to struggle to get inside against Baylor’s defense that does a great job of staying in front of its man, the team is allowing the 19th furthest average shot proximity in the country, per Haslametrics. The Bears are lacking a rim protector, bottom 10 in field goal percentage at the rim, but if Texas is going to settle for jump shots I’ll side with Baylor’s offense at the moment.

Texas has been fairly overvalued this season, especially as a favorite, 6-10 against the spread at home and 7-11 as a favorite. There are warning signs up about this Longhorns defense and they are facing arguably the best O in the country right now. I think Baylor hangs around in this one and covers the two possession spread.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.