Best college basketball bets today (How to bet Friday Sweet 16 action)

After an epic day of college hoops on Thursday night that included an overtime thriller between Kansas State and Michigan State, a shocking upset from Florida Atlantic over Tennessee and an instant classic between Gonzaga and UCLA, the Sweet 16 continues on Friday night.

A pair of No. 1 seeds continue their journey to the Final Four with Houston taking on Miami and Alabama facing off against San Diego State in addition to a pair of title contenders looking to hold serve with Texas and Creighton each favored to advance to the Elite Eight.

Here are a pair of best bets for Friday’s Sweet 16 action:

Friday’s Sweet 16 best bets

• San Diego State +7.5 vs. Alabama
• Texas -4 vs. Xavier

San Diego State vs. Alabama prediction and pick

This is too many points for the Aztecs, who can dictate the pace of the  game. Only one team allows fewer possessions in transition than San Diego State, according to Hoop-Math, and that’s the primary focus of Nate Oats’ team, who plays nearly 30% of its possessions in transition.

While the Crimson Tide have plenty of avenues to success, the team doesn’t generate turnovers at all and are incredibly reliant at getting to the rim or making three’s on offense. For starters, San Diego State wants to play slow and the Crimson Tide’s defensive turnover percentage of 312th, so the Aztecs will be able to limit the possessions.

Further, the San Diego State defense is compact and elite at shutting down the interior, top 25 in field goal percentage at the rim. Opponents average the 17th longest average possession length, per KenPom, as the defense is disciplined and makes offense work for the best look.

This game is going to be more of a methodical affair than Alabama is used to and I don’t trust the team’s perimeter shot making to carry them to a blowout victory, the Tide shoot 34% from beyond the arc, which is right around the national average.

PICK: San Diego State +7.5

Xavier vs. Texas prediction and pick

Xavier has benefitted from a relatively easy path through the first weekend, rallying to beat Kennesaw State in the first round in the final minutes and then overwhelming a Pitt team that was playing its third game of the week after advancing out of the First Four.

The Musketeers defense continues to be suspect this season, 152nd in raw defensive efficiency, and I struggle to see them slowing down the well rounded offense of the Longhorns that is top 50 in field goal percentage at all three levels.

While Miller’s group has an elite set of shot makers that is 12th in effective field goal percentage, Texas’ strong defense is going to stunt Xavier’s ability to get clean looks inside. The Musketeers are 37th in two-point field goal percentage as the team’s group of slashing wings are difficult to slow down.

However, Texas’ no-middle scheme is top 20 in turnover percentage and 57th in effective field goal percentage allowed. The defense is disciplined and will keep a lid on the downhill Xavier offense.

Even if this game becomes a bit of a back-and-forth affair, I trust Texas’ defense to get the necessary stops to pull away and cover the spread to advance to the Elite Eight.

PICK: Texas -4

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.