Big 12 Tournament 2023: 1 dark horse who could start March Madness early

The Big 12 is the roughest league in college basketball this season and a dark horse could easily emerge to start the madness early.

Trying to make your way through the 2022-23 Big 12 may be hazardous to your health if you’re a college basketball team. The always-rugged conference has hit a new level of difficulty this season as all 10 teams are talented enough to make the NCAA Tournament and win a game or two at minimum.

Four Big 12 schools cracked the Top 10 of our power rankings at the end of February while the worst-ranked school in terms of the NET is Oklahoma, which entered the final week of the regular season with five Quadrant 1 wins. That total is more than several prospective bubble teams, including North Carolina, Auburn and New Mexico.

While the Big 12 should send at least eight teams into March Madness, there is the potential for a ninth if a dark horse steals the conference’s automatic bid by winning the Big 12 tournament.

Why Texas Tech can shake up the Big 12 Tournament

A lot of people forget that the Red Raiders were a Top 25 outfit throughout the non-conference season before stumbling significantly at the start of league play. An 0-8 start to Big 12 play did a number on Texas Tech, which tumbled to the bottom of the conference standings rather quickly, but they have played significantly better basketball down the stretch.

The Red Raiders responded to that stumble by winning 5 of their next 8 league games, with three of those victories coming over ranked schools in Iowa State, Kansas State and Texas. Two of the defeats were also one-possession games as Oklahoma State beat them by three on Feb. 8 while No. 24 TCU escaped with a one-point victory on Feb. 25.

Perhaps some bad luck has been a factor for the Red Raiders, who enter March ranked outside the Top 300 teams in KenPom’s luck matrix. Getting a few more bounces of the basketball in their favor could have Texas Tech closer to .500 in conference play, which would add more Quad 1 wins to their resume and put them in position to be closer to the cut line.

Mark Adams’ team is set to play in the opening round of the Big 12 Tournament, meaning they will have to win four games in four days to claim the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. Surviving that kind of gauntlet won’t be easy, but the rugged Red Raiders are more than capable of holding their own against elite competition.

Even a run to the finals would add a few more Quad 1 wins to Texas Tech’s resume, which could be enough to push them into the field at the expense of a less-accomplished school from the ACC or Big Ten. Teams on the bubble should be terrified of Texas Tech, which is playing well and can get March Madness started early by causing chaos at the Big 12 Tournament.