Bill Madden: Making sense of the Tampa Bay Rays hot start to the ‘23 season

“You’re never as good as everyone tells you when you win, and you’re never as bad as they say when you lose”

The famous quote by college football Hall of Fame coach Lou Holtz — especially the first part of it — was being thrown around a lot this past week in the wake of the Tampa Bay Rays’ record-tying 13-0 start to the 2023 baseball season. A start like this from a team with the 28th lowest payroll in baseball — in which they out-scored the opposition 101-30, more than the total runs of 27 other teams, while winning 11 of those games by four or more runs — would ordinarily seem quite phenomenal. Going into the weekend, the Rays led the majors in runs, batting, homers, OPS, total bases and ERA — and according to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Rays’ plus-71 run differential in those first 13 games was the best in the modern era (post-1900).

But it does pale somewhat when you consider the quality of the opposition. The four teams the Rays mopped the floor with in winning their first 13 games — Tigers, Nationals, A’s and Red Sox — are all very likely going to finish last this year, and as a further gift from the schedule-maker, 10 of those first 13 games for the Rays were at home. Sure enough, the streak ended Friday night in Toronto when the Rays self-destructed amid a flurry of walks and misplays in the field that led to a 6-3 loss to the Blue Jays, the first team they’d faced this season with a winning record.

That said, even with this admittedly very small and somewhat tainted sampling, the Rays have the outward appearance of being a very different team from the one that finished third in the AL East last year, 13 games behind the Yankees. The ‘22 Rays team was especially challenged offensively, ranking 20th in the majors in runs, 25th in homers, 23rd in OPS along with the 12th most strikeouts. They were a hard team to watch, especially in the AL wild card series against the Guardians in which they scored one run in 24 innings and struck out 29 times.

Something had to be done, but instead of spending money in the free agent market, or trading prospects for an established hitter, Rays GM Erik Neander looked over the landscape and concluded the two best hitters who could best improve his team were his own two best hitters, Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe, both of whom missed the better part of last season with injuries. And so far, Neander’s decision to stand pat is being proven right as Franco is off to a .316/.361/.649 start through Friday and Lowe was at .324 with a team-high five homers.

Meanwhile, the Rays spent an inordinate amount of time this spring working on their most egregious shortcoming of recent years — a lack of plate discipline — and that, too, has been paying big dividends for them. Last year, the Rays swung at 32.5% of pitches outside the strike zone. After 13 games this year, that number was down to 26.7%, slightly below the major league average of 28.5%, while their overall 94 strikeouts as of Friday were the fourth fewest in baseball.

In the opinion of one scout who’s been following the Rays the last two years, this hot start may also be attributed to so many young Rays players coming into their own. As of Friday, six of the Rays’ regulars were hitting over .300 while the Rays’ pitchers led the majors in ERA (2.23) and had given up the fewest homers (7). According to MLB, the Rays’ average age of 28.30 makes them the third youngest team in baseball, behind the Guardians (27.02) and Tigers (28.08). By contrast, the Mets, with the highest payroll in baseball — ($344 million to the Rays’ $74M) — are also the oldest team at an average of 32.19.

Indeed, the Rays’ roster is a tribute to Neander’s trading acumen. Of the regulars, only Franco and the two Lowes, Brandon and Josh, are homegrown. The rest, catchers Christian Bethancourt and Francisco Mejia, first baseman Yandy Diaz, third baseman Isaac Paredes, DH Harold Ramirez and outfielders Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot, Jose Siri and Luke Raley were all acquired from other organizations, as were all the principals in Neander’s highly effective “no-name” bullpen, Ryan Thompson, Jason Adam, Garrett Cleavinger, Colin Poche, Jalen Beeks, Kevin Kelly and Pete Fairbanks.

IT’S A MADD, MADD WORLD

Considering the many questions the Mets had about their starting rotation and set-up relief corps going into the offseason, and as long as Steve Cohen had made up his mind to blow through all the luxury tax thresholds, it’s a wonder, in hindsight, why they were so willing to let Seth Lugo, their most versatile and dependable reliever the last five seasons, walk as a free agent. Lugo signed a two-year, $15 million deal with the Padres, who promised him they’d let him start, and so far he’s more than lived up to their faith, winning his first two starts with a 1.38 ERA. The $15 million seems like a small price to pay for the kind of insurance policy Lugo would have given the Mets. …

Rob Thomson is finding the second time around is anything but a charm. After taking over the 22-29 Phillies last year and leading them all the way to the World Series, Thomson is wondering when anything is going to go right this year. After losing first baseman Rhys Hoskins for the season in spring training, the Phillies are off to a rough start, the victims of some sloppy baserunning (eight players thrown out on the bases as of Friday after only 36 all of last year) and some really bad pitching. Team ace Aaron Nola had an ungodly 7.04 ERA through his first three starts and as of Friday only six Phillie starters had made it into the sixth inning and none into the seventh. A sign that drastic times require drastic measures, the Phillies confirmed that Bryce Harper, who’s not expected back until the All-Star break, is now working out at first base.

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