Black Friday and holiday shopping season expected to surge back after in-store sales plunged last year

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Retailers are gearing up for a “big weekend” of shopping this Black Friday and Small Business Saturday, as in-person sales surge back after a 2020 season hobbled by COVID-19.

The annual Black Friday extravaganza appears headed toward strong sales, despite pressures from inflation and shipping constraints, retail experts tell the Herald.

There is plenty of consumer momentum and “pent-up demand” after in-person shopping dropped last year when no one was vaccinated and many were concerned about heading out to stores and crowds.

“People have saved some money and want to get out and shop,” said Jon Hurst, president of the Retailers Association of Massachusetts. “That’s good for the brick and mortar stores.

“It will be a big weekend,” Hurst added. “Friday will be big, and so will Small Business Saturday. … Consumers do have some pent-up demand as a result of the economic crisis and health crisis.”

An average holiday season increase year-over-year is around 4%, and retailers are looking to crush that this year, he said.

“Our members have been through a tough time, but they’re optimistic,” Hurst said. “We’re expecting a good season.”

The National Retail Federation is forecasting that holiday sales during November and December will grow between 8.5% and 10.5% over 2020 numbers — to between $843.4 billion and $859 billion, which would set records for both the growth rate and total amount spent. Consumers are expected to spend an average of $997.73.

Nearly 2 million more people than last year are forecasted to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, according to a survey released by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics.

“We’re expecting another record-breaking holiday season this year and Thanksgiving weekend will play a major role as it always has,” said National Retail Federation President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Nonetheless, consumers are starting earlier than ever to be sure they can get what they want, when they want it, at a price they want to pay.”

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