Blip In Online College Enrollment Doesn’t Mean What You Think

Several fully online-only colleges have reported noteworthy increases in enrollments among more-or-less traditional age college students – those between 18 and 24. It is news. But it probably does not mean what most people think it means.

The news is easy. Online college Southern New Hampshire University (SNHU) grew from 135,000 students in March 2020 to 175,000 today. Western Governors University (WGU) reported a jump in traditionally aged students from approximately 6,000 students in 2017 to 15,000 students in 2022. At University of Maryland Global Campus (UMGC), also fully online, reported enrollment of those under the age of 24 went from nearly 4,300 students in 2017 to 5,700 students this year.

That’s great. It’s good when people further their educations.

But it probably does not mean, as some pundits have proposed, that young people have changed their minds about online education and now see it as a suitable stand-in for attending a traditional, campus-based college or university. The enrollment bump, in other words, does not represent a significant shift in how people think about online colleges – and more often than not, those thoughts are not positive.

There are a few reasons why the enrollment bump probably does not mean people’s impressions of online schools have shifted.

One is that measuring the headcount at a few schools can seem significant but when you look at the numbers as a share of young, college-age people, the increase is nearly invisible. A survey out this year showed that, “before the pandemic, 0.28 percent of the high school respondents said they planned to attend college fully online. In 2022, that figure more than doubled, to 0.72 percent.”

More than doubled. That’s newsworthy. To less than three-quarters of one percent. Call that change what you want, but it’s not a perception shift, at least not one of any scale.

Look at it this way – national education statistics show that since the pandemic began in 2020 “total undergraduate enrollment has dropped by nearly 1.4 million — or 9.4 percent.” Some of the reported new growth in younger students going to online schools took place before the pandemic, but even if you count it all, those three schools – WGU, SNHU and UMGC recorded enrollment increases of about 50,000 students. That’s less than four percent of the 1.4 million undergraduates who stepped back from higher education since 2020.

Again, it’s good. But we’re talking about – at most – 3.5% of that, with 80% of that increase coming from one school, SNHU.

But in an effort to sell the narrative that young people are feeling better about fully online schooling, some have cited this study from Northeastern University. In that narrative and along with this enrollment bump, that study is reported as showing, “that nearly three-quarters (71 percent) of employers perceive online educational credentials as on par with or of a higher quality than those completed in person.”

But let me report the same study this way – according to Northeastern University, as of last year, nearly a third (31%) of c-suite executives said a credential earned online was, “generally of lower quality than those completed in-person.”

In other words, seeing a nice increase in enrollment numbers at one college does not mean that the ground underneath online programs is shifting. It’s still pretty bad.

Taking a step back, it’s easy to parse what’s actually happening, what these gains actually show. Rather than representing a shift in perception, it’s instead clear that some young people are taking ginger baby steps as they enter or re-enter college.

Given the absolute chaos and terrible outcomes so many of us saw over the past two years – ZoomU anyone? – it’s hard to blame them. Now that some students are starting to date again, it’s easy to see that they’re still not quite ready to fully commit. It’s the college equivalent of the millions of people who recognize that the pandemic is “over,” but still are not quite ready to go out to restaurants or travel. On college, which is a more significant decision than dinner, it’s believable that some people just are not fully ready to go all the way yet.

If things go south, if virus variants emerge or mask mandates reappear, fully online college programs will probably be the least disrupted. They tend to be easier to start and easier to stop or pause. It’s a reasonable middle ground and a safe place to start, all things considered.

It’s also very likely a big factor that these online-only schools heavily, heavily advertise. Most traditional schools don’t – at least not with non-stop national television ads. If people are regretting their decision to stop college or being a tad more cautious than normal, the ads that stress the convenience of online learning are clearly a factor.

It is true that some online-only schools invest in quality. WGU does, for example. Speaking of which, their competency model is an entirely different approach than that of most schools and probably should not be counted alongside SNHU and others.

The persistent fact though is that most subprime, for-profit schools are online-only. And that taints the entire offering – a condition that’s unlikely to change. Yes, some younger students are returning to school. And, yes, some of those are going to online-only schools, but it’s a fraction of a fraction and almost certainly does not constitute a significant change in sentiment. Despite what you may hear.