Brazil votes in Bolsonaro-Lula showdown

RIO DE JANEIRO – Brazil votes Sunday in a polarising presidential election, with all eyes on whether front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva can win in a single round – and whether incumbent Jair Bolsonaro will accept the result.

The campaign, which left the Latin American giant deeply divided, ended with former president Lula (2003-2010) leading former army captain Bolsonaro with 50 per cent of valid votes to 36 per cent, according to a final poll from the Datafolha institute released Saturday evening.

The figures put Mr Lula on the cusp of the score needed to win outright and avoid a runoff on Oct 30: Half the valid votes, plus one.

But Mr Bolsonaro, known for his combative style, has repeatedly said “only God” can remove him from office, attacked supposed fraud in Brazil’s electronic voting system, and vowed his re-election bid can have just three outcomes: “Prison, death or victory.”

Mr Lula, the charismatic but tarnished former president seeking to stage a comeback at 76, says he fears the incumbent will create “turmoil” if he loses – a concern heard often in Brazil heading into election day.

Mr Bolsonaro’s attacks on the voting system have raised fears of a Brazilian version of the riots that erupted at the United States Capitol last year after his political role model, former president Donald Trump, refused to accept his election loss.

“I do think (Bolsonaro) will contest the election result if he loses,” said political analyst Adriano Laureno of consulting firm Prospectiva.

“But that doesn’t mean he’ll succeed. The international community will recognise the result quickly… There might be some kind of turmoil and uncertainty around the transition, but there’s no risk of a democratic rupture.”

Observers from the Organization of American States, the Carter Centre, the Inter-American Union of Electoral Organisations (UNIORE) and other international bodies will be monitoring the vote.

The White House meanwhile said the US would be watching the vote “closely.”

More than 500,000 security force members will be deployed on election day. Public Security Minister Anderson Torres sought to downplay fears of unrest.

“We’re having an election, not a war,” he said.

Mr Lula, the former metalworker who rose from destitute poverty to become the most popular president in Brazilian history, is seeking to stage a remarkable return, four years after falling spectacularly from grace when he was jailed for 18 months on controversial corruption charges.

Accused in a massive graft scheme centred on state-run oil company Petrobras, Mr Lula regained the right to run for office last year when the Supreme Court annulled his convictions, ruling the lead judge in the case was biased.