California vs. Washington State prediction and odds for Pac 12 Tournament first round (Bet on Bad Offense)

It’s hard to find a better way to open the Pac-12 tournament for Washington State.

The fifth-seeded Cougars will play 12th-seeded California, which owns an ABYSMAL 3-28 record, including a 2-18 record in conference play.

Even though March has become known for upsets and wild finishes, I don’t think that will be the case this afternoon. But should you lay -14 with the spread? That might be a different story.

Let’s examine if betting on Washington State makes sense in this spot.

California vs. Washington State odds, spread and total

California vs. Washington State prediction

Laying 14 points in March usually isn’t easy to stomach for college basketball fans, but this is one spot where you might be tempted.

Washington State has beaten Cal in both matchups this season, winning 66-51 in the first matchup and then winning 63-57 two weeks ago.

The important takeaway here, in my opinion, is Cal’s utter inability to score against Washington State. Holding a team below 60 points is no easy feat, but the Cougars have had little trouble doing so against this team.

Cal trailed by just three points at halftime when these two teams last played, but scored just four field goals in the first eight minutes of the second half as the game slipped away.

This isn’t just a phase or a coincidence, either.

Cal ranks 362nd (second to last!) in the nation with 58.5 points per game this season. The Golden Bears are 358th in offensive efficiency and 359th in effective shooting percentage.

Washington State is 41st in opponent points per game (65.4), 125th in defensive efficiency and 45th in opponent rebounding. The Cougars aren’t going to take it easy on the Golden Bears in a must-win game like this, and Cal isn’t going to suddenly find its shooting stroke, especially against a solid defense.

And it’s not as if Washington State is an offensive juggernaut. The Cougars are 244th in the nation in points per game (68.1) and 127th in offensive efficiency.

Both of these teams play SLOW, too, as they each are ranked outside the top 300 in terms of pace.

Take the under 126.5 for your best bet in this game (it’s gone under in both matchups), and if you’re looking for another, take Washington State -14 as well.

Just because March Madness is here doesn’t mean the underdogs always win. Bet on the Cougars’ defense with confidence here.

Pick: Under 126.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.