Can Russia Tame Wagner in Africa Without Destroying It?

The Wagner group provides security to African presidents, props up dictators, violently suppresses rebel uprisings and is accused of torture, murder of civilians and other abuses. It also meddles in politics, organizes propaganda campaigns and, in one instance, even held a beauty pageant. In return it receives cash or lucrative mining concessions for precious minerals like gold, diamonds and uranium.

For years, until the Ukraine war, Mr. Prigozhin denied any link with Wagner and even its very existence, and only recently did President Vladimir V. Putin acknowledge Russia’s connection to the group. That deliberately murky relationship enabled the Wagner mercenaries to take advantage of Russian military assets like transport planes and heavy armor while posing as nonstate actors. In return, the group provided Moscow a means to project power, often with indiscriminate violence, while denying responsibility.

For now, however, Wagner’s clients seem prepared to take Moscow at its word, perhaps unwilling or in some cases, frightened, to contemplate governing without the group’s iron-fisted backing.

“Russia gave us Wagner, the rest isn’t our business,” said Fidèle Gouandjika, a special adviser to Mr. Touadéra in the Central African Republic. “If it’s not Wagner anymore and they send Beethoven or Mozart, it doesn’t matter, we’ll take them,” he added, a reference to the group’s taking its name from the German composer Richard Wagner.

The Central African Republic is considered by most analysts Wagner’s most accomplished business model and example of state capture. The dizzying range of its activities and revenue streams there amply illustrate the problems the Kremlin will encounter in trying to assert control.

Wagner makes liberal use of shell companies to conceal its activities, but through at least a half-dozen known entities in the Central African Republic, it runs a radio station and a brewery, and soon will be bottling water.