Change Or Continuity? What Education Polling Can Tell Us.

On Tuesday, November 8^th Americans will head to the polls to elect 435 congressional representatives, 35 senators, and 36 governors.

According to our polling at EdChoice, education issues are tied for fifth in importance for voters in both state and local elections, trailing economic issues, women’s issues, health care issues, and security issues. They actually come in last in terms of priority of the seven issues we poll at the federal level (trailing the four already mentioned as well as seniors’ issues and energy issues).

While education qua education might not play an outsized role in November, there are three interesting polling numbers that are tangled up in the bramble of thoughts and feelings that shape voter behavior. Understanding these three findings can help fill in the picture of American attitudes towards education as they enter election season.

Issue #1: The Coronavirus

Since May of 2020, we have asked parents whether or not they feel comfortable sending their children to school due to the pandemic. For months, opinion was basically split. Those saying that they were comfortable ranged from 45 to 55 percent of respondents, which meant that those saying that they did not feel comfortable fell into that range as well. It wasn’t until the end of the 2020-2021 school year that parental comfort consistently cleared 60 percent.

This is a generally misunderstood phenomenon. Ask folks who were keen to keep schools open during that time period and you get the impression that 70 or 80 percent of parents thought like them. Ask those who wanted to continue with remote schooling and you’ll hear the same. In a big country, even if only 45 percent of people agree with you, that is a huge number and can make people feel like they are in the majority even when they aren’t.

Part of what made this time period so divisive is how evenly the coronavirus cleaved the population in two. But those times appear to be over.

According to our most recent poll, which was in the field from September 16^th to 17^th, 78 percent of parents now say that they are comfortable sending their children to school and only 18 percent say that they are not. This agreement has removed a massive amount of tension and discord. Yes, the scars are still there from the difficult and divisive fights over what schools should do in response to the pandemic, but the daily loggerheaded battles appear to have subsided.

#2 The Politicization of Schools

Advocates on both sides of the political spectrum have spent the last few months telling us that our schools have become politicized. Whether it is how history or human sexuality are being taught or what books are allowed in the library, those on the left have been saying that schools are being overtaken by conservatives and those on the right are saying that they are being overtaken by liberals. Part of the get out the vote strategy appears to be an effort to convince people to stop this politicization or tip it in voters’ preferred direction.

But what do parents think? For the first time in our polling we asked parents in September “To what extent do you feel your child’s school shares your political views?” The results may surprise you.

Only 37 percent of parents said that their school was political. The majority of parents either said that they did not think that their child’s school was political (37 percent) or simply did not know if it was political or not (26 percent). Of those who said that their child’s school was political, 17 percent said that the school shared their political views. That means that only 20 percent of parents said that their child’s school was too political. Ideologically, it was split almost evenly, with 8 percent of parents saying that their child’s school was too conservative and 12 percent of parents saying that their child’s school was too liberal.

As I stated above, 20 percent of a big number is still a lot of people, and when they are taking to social media or showing up on the news, they can feel like the majority. But they aren’t. Most parents either don’t think their child’s school is too political, or political at all.

#3 The Big Parental Fear

The through seam of the previous two arguments is that Americans appear to be less divided and politicized than people might think. If elections are thought of as “change” vs. “continuity,” both would suggest that people are comfortable with continuity.

Here is a number for change. Since the tragedy in Uvalde, we have asked parents “How concerned are you about a violent intruder, like a mass shooter, entering your child’s/children’s school?” In September, 46 percent of parents said that they were either “extremely” or “very” concerned about this happening.

Having nearly half of parents this concerned every day has to bleed into how they think about politics and the wider world and what they want to see happen. When we’ve polled about solutions to this problem, parents are totally split, and there are few, if any solutions that rally a majority of support. But what parents want to do about this problem is probably less relevant than its simple existence.

People don’t want to live in fear that a gunman will enter their child’s school. Whether their solutions to that problem fall on the right or left of the political spectrum, it is a strong argument that they want some sort of change.

Whether the 2022 midterm elections will be a vote for change or a vote for continuity remains to be seen. We’ll have to watch the results to see which carries the day.