Chiefs vs. Steelers prediction: Ride the heavy underdog

Dave Tuley, senior reporter at VSiN.com, is in his fourth season with The Post’s Bettor’s Guide. His handicapping pieces appear in VSiN’s online magazine, Point Spread Weekly.

Sunday: Pittsburgh Steelers (+12.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

I certainly understand the high spread: The Chiefs have won nine of their past 10 and routed the Steelers, 36-10, just three weeks ago, easily covering as 10-point home favorites. The thing keeping this line under two touchdowns is probably the fact the Chiefs don’t always cover when they win (6-4 ATS during this recent run). Few people expected the Steelers to be here, and they can play loose as the Chiefs are under all the pressure. The Chiefs’ defense, which has been lauded as turning their season around, has given up 34 points to the Bengals and 24 to the Drew Lock-led Broncos in the past two weeks, so we expect Ben Roethlisberger to be able to keep the Steelers close. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs should be content to just get out with the SU win (though, watch out if the Steelers are able to bring more of a pass rush this time).

Monday: Arizona Cardinals (+4) over LOS ANGELES RAMS

Each team won outright as a small road underdog in the two regular-season meetings, and the Cardinals inadvertently did themselves a favor by losing to the Seahawks on Sunday, as they’re 8-1 on the road and just 3-5 at home (Note: the Rams were just 5-3 at home and 7-2 on the road, so we don’t see too much of a home-field advantage here if at all). The problem with the Cardinals is they haven’t been playing as well as they were when they routed the Rams, 37-20, at SoFi Stadium way back in Week 4. The Rams had won four straight before losing to the 49ers on Sunday, but they’ve had their own troubles, most notably QB Matthew Stafford turning the ball over eight times in the past three games. Taking more than a field goal with the live road ’dog is clearly the play.

Last week: 2-0. Jaguars (W), Texans (W)
Season: 22-14