College football predictions: Bet on two teams to punch CFP ticket

The College Football Playoff’s four-team format is entering its final season.

With nine seasons’ worth of data to examine, a couple of trends stand out.

In the CFP era, only one preseason favorite has won the national championship: Alabama at +250 in 2017.

Last season, Georgia became the first repeat national champion in the CFP era, but the Bulldogs opened their 2022 campaign third in the preseason pecking order, behind Ohio State and Alabama.

The second trend that we can glean from nearly a decade’s worth of committee selections is that a team’s previous-season success is a key indicator.

Excluding COVID-19 season data, the average CFP team posted a record of 11.5-2.1 the year before earning a spot in the field.

In fact, just four teams have made the CFP without posting double-digit wins in the previous season (excluding 2020).

Oklahoma went from 8-5 to the 4-seed in 2015. Washington made a massive jump from 7-6 to a 12-1 regular season in Year 3 of Chris Petersen.

Georgia broke through in Kirby Smart’s second season in Athens, transforming an 8-5 team into a national runner-up. And finally, we saw a wild turnaround from TCU last season (5-7 to the national title game).

What this tells us is that though there is room for the occasional turnaround story, CFP slots are routinely filled by teams that have already established themselves as contenders.

Winning double-digit games in the previous season is nearly a prerequisite for inclusion.

What does that mean for this season?

Betting on College Football?

Though 24 teams won 10-plus games in 2022, the field of contenders is actually much smaller.

Eight of those 24 teams came from the Group of 5, and only one G5 team has cracked the playoffs in nine seasons (Cincinnati in 2021). Of the remaining 16 teams, five have short odds (sub 10/1) — including Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, USC and Michigan.

That leaves us with nine teams entering 2023 with 10-plus win momentum and lucrative odds.

Two have caught my eye for a few reasons.

Penn State (25/1, BetMGM)

The Nittany Lions won 11 games last season, including a convincing Rose Bowl victory over Utah. They return four starters along the offensive line, headlined by future top-10 pick Olu Fashanu.

They’re loaded at the skill positions, boasting a one-two sophomore punch at running back (Nicholas Singleton, Kaytron Allen) and a deep receiver room that was bolstered by the arrival of Dante Cephas.

That sets the table perfectly for Drew Allar, Penn State’s highest-rated quarterback prospect since 2004 (Anthony Morelli).

At 6-foot-5, 245 pounds with a quick release, Allar is reminiscent of a young Drew Bledsoe.

With a blend of a potentially prolific offense, a defense returning a ton of experience in the back seven, and a 55 percent blue-chip ratio (4-star or 5-star recruits), I love the Nittany Lions to finally break through under James Franklin at these odds.

Florida State (25/1, FanDuel)

The Seminoles won 10 games last season, dominated the transfer portal and return the nation’s highest-rated quarterback (Jordan Travis), according to Pro Football Focus.

Defensively, the Seminoles have a chance to be special.

Last season, they were top-10 in pass defense, sacks and limiting plays of 20 yards or more.

They could be even better this season with at least two All-Americans candidates in Jared Verse (17 tackles for loss) and Fentrell Cypress II (fifth in passes defended per game).

Their two most challenging games are away from Tallahassee (neutral site versus LSU, at Clemson), but the Seminoles have the goods to punch the program’s first CFP ticket since 2014.