Could N.Y.C. Rents Go Up by 16 Percent? Here’s What to Know.

People already struggling to afford the staggering cost of living in New York City were hit with a new, ominous figure on Thursday: A panel that regulates rent-stabilized apartments discussed rent increases of 15.75 percent on two-year leases, the highest such figure in almost two decades.

New York City’s roughly one million rent-stabilized apartments are considered a crucial source of affordable housing. They are supposed to be insulated from market forces that have sent asking rents in unregulated apartments soaring.

Last year, the panel, known as the Rent Guidelines Board, allowed the largest increases in almost a decade — 3.25 percent on one-year leases and 5 percent on two-year leases — citing rising costs for landlords.

But while the figures discussed on Thursday suggest that tenants should prepare for another increase, it is unlikely the board will ultimately endorse the highest figures.

What is the Rent Guidelines Board?

The board is a powerful body made up of nine members appointed by the mayor, including landlord and tenant representatives. Each year, they set the percentage by which landlords of rent-stabilized apartments can raise the rent.

The board’s annual vote is subject to intense lobbying from landlord and tenant groups, and the outcome often aligns with the mayor’s political leanings.

For example, the board typically kept increases low during the tenure of the previous mayor, Bill de Blasio, a left-leaning Democrat who vowed to reduce inequality. The increases last year came during the first year in office of Mayor Eric Adams, who has more moderate stances and has expressed sympathy for mom-and-pop landlords.

How did the board come up with the numbers?

The numbers the board released on Thursday are preliminary estimates that the members will weigh along with factors like renter incomes and affordability to decide on a final number later in the year.

The board, by law, is required to consider the “economic condition of the real estate industry,” and Thursday’s figures are meant to capture the level of rent adjustment needed to keep landlords’ net operating income steady.

The board uses several formulas to calculate these estimates. This year, the lowest adjustments are 5.3 percent for one-year leases and 6.6 percent for two-year leases. The highest are 8.25 percent on one-year leases and 15.75 percent on two-year leases.

Why do they seem so high this year?

This stage of the process focuses on landlord costs. The high numbers reflect that landlords are paying more for things like fuel, insurance, maintenance, taxes and utilities. They also reflect high rates of inflation.

Fuel costs, for example, went up almost 20 percent, according to research from the board. Insurance costs went up 13 percent and maintenance costs went up more than 9 percent.

The landlord costs are just one data point the board will consider. Earlier this year, it discussed eviction rates, employment rates and affordability, among other factors.

Will the rent really go up that much?

History suggests no.

Last year, for example, the board looked at figures of up to 9 percent on two-year leases and 4.5 percent on one-year leases, generating a significant amount of angst among many New York City renters. The board ultimately approved increases of 3.25 percent on one-year leases and 5 percent on two-year leases.

There is a longstanding pattern of the final figures being lower than those initially floated. The only time in the last 10 years that was not true was 2016, when one early estimate suggested the rent on one-year leases could decrease and the board froze rents instead.

What happens next?

The board is holding meetings over the next several weeks, but the first major milestone will come in May, when it will take a “preliminary vote” on proposed increases.

Those proposals should take into account the experience of tenants as well as landlords, and will more accurately telegraph likely increases.

What do tenant advocates think?

Rents and home prices are already huge challenges for New Yorkers, and any increase could make the situation worse.

Last year, tenant advocates had called for the board to decrease rents, saying the pandemic had dealt a severe blow to many of the lowest-income New Yorkers most affected by rent increases.

City data released last year showed that nearly 40 percent of rent-stabilized households spend more than 50 percent of their income on rent. (People should not spend more than 30 percent of their gross income on housing, according to a common benchmark.)

Adán Soltren, a board member representing tenants who was appointed by Mr. Adams last year, said on Thursday that the board should run a similar analysis for tenants as it does for landlords.

“What projection would be necessary to keep a tenant under a rent burden?” he said.

What do landlords think?

Landlords feel that any increase should at least be in the upper range of the figures discussed on Thursday.

Because the board has typically allowed rent increases that are lower than the initial numbers focused on landlord costs, landlords say they have had to forgo repairs and maintenance.

Robert Ehrlich, a board member representing landlords, noted that property owners do not have access to subsidies available to tenants.

“When costs keep going up, they keep going up, and there’s no safety net there for landlords,” he said.