Covid hospitalisations in England may be ‘topping off’, says expert

Hospitalisations from the recent surge in Covid infections may be “topping off” on the basis of the latest numbers, according to one of Britain’s leading statisticians.

The total number of people in hospital in England who have tested positive for Covid-19 stood at 11,878 in the seven days up to Wednesday, an increase of 33% from the week before.

Dr David Spiegelhalter said cases were still rising more broadly and that there was a “huge undercount” as testing was not taking place to the degree it had been.

More than 2 million people had the virus according to the Covid-19 Infection Survey, the largest regular survey of coronavirus infections and antibodies, which Spiegelhalter described as one of the most reliable sources of data, although he stressed it was a couple of weeks old.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “It’s high. It’s not as high as it had been – it went up to 8% this year – but I think we need to look at hospitalisations.”

“They have been rising steeping and they are nearly at the level of previous peaks this year. I think there are some indications that they may be topping off.”

About a quarter of those admitted to hospital were found to have caught it in hospital, he said, but he added that all needed extra care and this was feeding into the staffing problems in the NHS.

“Fortunately, there is no increase in those on ventilation. That doesn’t mean there are not some severe cases,” he added.

The latest figures are regarded as evidence of how the virus is becoming more prevalent, with the potential to add further pressure on hospital staff already trying to clear a record backlog of operations.

The current wave is being driven by the variants Omicron BA.4 and BA.5, which are now the dominant strains in the UK and are more transmissible than the BA.2 variant that caused infection levels to reach an all-time high earlier in the year.

The rate of hospital admissions in England of people testing positive for Covid-19 stood at 14.6 per 100,000 last week, up from 11.1 the previous week, according to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).

Admissions to intensive care units (ICU) stood at 0.4 per 100,000, up from 0.3. Both figures are the highest since mid-April.

Health experts have warned the numbers are likely to carry on rising throughout July, driven by a “substantial amount” of waning immunity among older people.

Dr Spiegelhalter said a trend was the increase in non-Covid excess deaths in hospitals – rather than in homes – and it was unclear why this was happening.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that there were 1,540 excess deaths in the week ending 24 June, although only about 10% were due to Covid-19.

“Some people are saying maybe this is the start of the impact of the measures against the pandemic and the disruption in healthcare and people’s use of healthcare,” said Dr Spiegelhalter.