Creighton vs. Baylor prediction and odds for NCAA Tournament Second Round

Creighton and Baylor meet in the 3/6 matchup in the South Region on Sunday evening.

The Bluejays survived a flurry from North Carolina State to advance while Baylor pulled away in the second half against UC-Santa Barbara to set up this Round of 32 showdown that is being lined as a coin flip of sorts.

Baylor is led by their vaunted offense and will look to outduel the likes of Creighton center Ryan Kalkbrenner, one of the best rim protectors in the country. Can they do enough while slowing down the Big East No. 6 seed on the other side of the ball to advance to next weekend?

Here are the odds for Sunday’s showdown:

Creighton vs. Baylor odds, spread and total

Creighton vs. Baylor prediction and pick

Creighton has some matchup advantages despite the difference in seeding, especially on the interior with Kalkbrenner. The Bears defense has struggled all season to defend the rim, outside the top 300 in two-point percentage allowed and 286th in defensive rebounding rate. Meanwhile, the Bluejays are incredibly potent offense inside with Kalkbrenner, 22nd in two-point offense on the year. The big man scored 31 in the first round victory against NC State on 19-of-13 shooting.

Baylor’s offense is explosive, the second best by KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, around elite guard play that features future lottery pick Keyonte George and Aaron Flagler that is top 50 in effective field goal percentage and top 20 at generating second chances. However, the Creighton defense is an elite unit that has length on the perimeter that funnels teams inside to the seven footer Kalkbrenner at the rim. Creighton is top 10 in three-point rate allowed, but is 20th in two-point percentage allowed.

Ultimately, this Baylor defense is far and away the worst of the four groups on the floor, and while the offense can pull them through a 40 minute contest against an elite opponent, I think more times than not the more complete roster in Creighton is more than capable of winning outright.

I’ll take the No. 6 seed on Sunday to advance to the Sweet 16.

Track all of Reed’s bets at Betstamp HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.