Creighton vs. San Diego State prediction and odds for NCAA Tournament Elite Eight
Kevinn Colleran
Creighton and San Diego State meet in the South Regional Finals on Sunday afternoon.
A rematch of the 2022 First Round between Creighton and San Diego State, which the Bluejays rallied in the last three minutes to win in overtime despite trailing by nine, goes down in the 2023 Elite Eight. After dethroning No. 1 overall seed Alabama, can San Diego State keep the momentum rolling against Creighton, who has been lightly challenged to date?
Creighton vs. San Diego State odds, spread and total
Creighton Bluejays @ San Diego State Aztecs | Odds by DraftKings
Creighton vs. San Diego State prediction and pick
These are two of the best defenses in the country meeting as each team looks to breakthrough to its first Final Four.
While the Bluejays are starting to realize its ceiling, they were an overqualified No. 6 seed to begin with, I favor San Diego State in this matchup. Both teams are elite at defending the interior, and Creighton has superior shot making, but it’s the SDSU midrange game that can tip the balance of this one.
The Bluejays play drop coverage with 7’1″ Ryan Kalkbrenner shutting down the paint, but the team allows midrange jumpers at the 12th highest rate, per ShotQuality, similar to Alabama’s defensive scheme. The Aztecs take midrange two’s at the 12th highest rate in the country. While not the analytically sound point of attack, it’s what SDSU is comfortable doing.
San Diego State beat Alabama in part due to the Tide’s poor three-point shooting (11%) but it’s worth noting that the team got a two-for-seven shooting night from its most prolific scorer Matt Bradley. The veteran guard runs hot and cold, but the team was able to find offense despite it’s leading man ice cold and only playing 19 minutes due to foul trouble.
San Diego State’s compact defense does allow a ton of three’s, 287th in three-point rate allowed, but the team has length to challenge on the perimeter and has allowed teams to shoot just 26% from beyond the arc this season. It’s an elite defense, not a flukey one.
Creighton’s offense can score in bunches, but if San Diego State is able to play its physical brand of basketball, I think they can drag this game out and out execute the Bluejays en route to the Final Four.
We also have seen the Bluejays struggle against elite competition, 6-9 against top 50 teams according to Bart Torvik. In those games, Creighton’s turnover rate increases to nearly 18%, 100th in the country, and the team is 241st in offensive rebounding rate. On defense, the team is 60th in field goal percentage allowed and its overall efficiency is 61st on the defensive end, a significant drop from 14th across the balance of the season, according to KenPom.
While the Aztecs played fewer teams, and the competition is arguably a bit lighter due to playing in the Mountain West, SDSU went 6-4 in those games and held those teams to an effective field goal percentage of below 49%. The defense saw very little drop-off despite playing some of the best teams in the country.
Creighton has struggled when facing the elite defenses in the country and San Diego State is going to dictate the terms of this game. I believe the Aztecs grind its way to a Final Four berth and get some revenge for last season’s first round meltdown with the stakes much higher, but I’ll take the point-and-a-half.
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