Dayton vs. VCU prediction and odds for Atlantic 10 Championship game

Dayton Flyers forward Toumani Camara. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The two top seeds in the Atlantic 10 have run the table to meet in the championship game on Sunday.

The No. 2 Dayton Flyers are fresh off a 10-point win over Fordham, setting them up for a rubber match with the VCU Rams.

VCU won the first meeting between these teams in Dayton by one point, but the Flyers returned the favor, picking up a four-point road win over the Rams on Feb. 7.

These are two elite defensive teams, but only one can earn an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, and it’s likely the loser won’t be one of the bubble teams to get in.

Here’s a look at the odds and pick for Sunday’s championship game:

Dayton vs. VCU odds, spread and total

Dayton Flyers @ Virginia Commonwealth Rams | Current Best Odds

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Dayton vs. VCU prediction and pick

These two teams have played two games decided by a grand total of five points, so I’m gladly going to take the 2.5 with the Flyers on Sunday.

VCU’s offense is much better than Dayton’s, but the Flyers have an elite defense. Here’s where they rank in a few key categories:

Opponent points per game: 10th
Opponent field goal percentage: 7th
Opponent 3-point percentage: 4th
Opponent opponent true shooting percentage: 3rd

Even though the Rams are top-25 in the country in opponent points per game, they aren’t nearly as good of a field goal percentage defense, though they do rank 17th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric.

The Flyers are going to try to slow this game down (352nd in adjusted tempo), and if they do I can’t see this game getting out of hand given how close the first two games were.

In a low-scoring affair, there’s only so far the Flyers could fall. I’ll take the points on Sunday.

ML: +115

VCU -2.5, O/U 124.5

ML: -140

Consensus betting odds

Pick & odds as of March 12, 2023, 8:23 AM

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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