Decline In Chinese Student Visas Paints A Bigger Picture Of U.S.-China Relations

The number of student visas issued to Chinese students to attend U.S. colleges and universities has plummeted in the years since the start of the pandemic. In August, The Wall Street Journal reported that the number of visas issued dropped more than 50% between 2019 and 2022. The drastic change poses the potential for significant financial consequences for American colleges, and—perhaps more significantly—points to a tense and rapidly shifting international political landscape.

Historically, the vast majority of international students studying in the U.S. have been Chinese students, who have come to represent a lucrative demographic for American universities—in 2015, while international students made up an average of only 12% of the total student population at public universities, their tuition dollars accounted for 28% of annual tuition revenue.

While the decrease in Chinese students is due in large part to restrictions imposed by the Chinese government during the pandemic, it is also indicative of changing attitudes toward the U.S. and the West more broadly.

A 2021 Chinese public opinion survey found that 33% of respondents’ view of the U.S. was “very unfavorable,” while another 29% described their views as “unfavorable.” However, Bloomberg notes that there is a significant difference in perceptions of the U.S. from Chinese citizens who have studied or traveled to the U.S., indicating that the Chinese media, heavily controlled by the Chinese government, has some degree of influence on the largely negative perception. It is worth noting that similarly negative perceptions have swelled in the U.S. as well—a 2021 study conducted by the Pew Research Center found that 89% of Americans view China as either a competitor or as an enemy. The largely unfavorable perception of China amongst U.S. citizens, coupled with the mounting prejudice Chinese students have faced on American college campuses in the wake of the pandemic, could also contribute to Chinese students pursuing higher education elsewhere.

Tensions between the U.S. and China—already strained as a result of conflicts regarding human rights, trade, and contested territory—escalated during the Trump presidency with the imposition of extensive tariffs on Chinese imports. Accusations that China was to blame for the outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic placed further stress on the countries’ diplomatic relationship. Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in early August indicated that tensions will not cool any time soon. The controversial trip prompted Chinese military drills in the South China Sea, which were broadcast on Chinese state media as an ominous sign of displeasure toward American fraternization with Taiwan.

However, the trickle-down effect of souring diplomatic relations is not the only factor impacting changing perceptions of America amongst Chinese citizens. In an op-ed for The New York Times
NYT
, Wang Wen writes that despite general admiration for the U.S. in the 1990’s among Chinese citizens, “after years of watching America’s wars overseas, reckless economic policies and destructive partisanship — culminating in last year’s disgraceful assault on the U.S. Capitol ­­— many Chinese, including me, can barely make out that shining beacon anymore.”

As a result, “Chinese students still want to study at U.S. universities but are acutely fearful of American gun violence, anti-Asian attacks or being labeled a spy. They are sent off with ominous advice: Don’t stray from campus, watch what you say, back away from conflict.” he said.

Despite international tensions and declines in the number of student visas, Chinese students continue to make up the majority of international students in the U.S.. At the same time, the downward trend in Chinese student visas is concurrent with an increase in student visas issued to students from India. The Chronicle of Higher Education reports that the number of student visas issued to Indian students has increased by 45% since last year and by 148% since three years ago, prior to the pandemic.

The promise of economic mobility is a key motivation for the increasing numbers of Indian students seeking U.S. degrees. In addition, amplified internet access to information about study abroad as well as expanded access to student loans for students of lower socioeconomic backgrounds have made study in the U.S. a more attractive and viable option for Indian students.

The years since the pandemic have seen a heightened percentage of approvals for F-1 student visa applications across the board, with a 95% acceptance rate for Indian applicants specifically, a steep rise from 40% in 2015. While these numbers were initially intended to help U.S. universities to recover from the pandemic’s limiting effect on international students, they could continue to be critical as the number of Chinese students seeking U.S. degrees continues its downward trend—and the current state of U.S.-Chinese relations indicates that the decline is here to stay.