Driving By Numbers: Are Canadians buying minivans in 2022?

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It’s harder than ever to actually take possession of a van, but to 98 per cent of Canadian new vehicle buyers, that doesn’t matter. They don’t want one anyway.

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Mass rejection of the family van category, which owned 10 per cent of the Canadian market less than two decades ago, has nothing to do with the effectiveness of an MPV as the best tool for families. Minivans, as we’ve taken to calling them in North America, have always been the Swiss Army Knife of family transportation, and they’ve only gotten better with four decades of evolution.

Yet as minivan popularity shrinks, the manufacturers who remain dedicated to fielding a van are backed into a predictable corner. In order to make a lower-volume product profitable, prices must rise. And as prices rise on a vehicle that’s primarily intended for young families, young families come to an obvious conclusion: minivans are unaffordable. The average base price for a minivan — just the base price, remember — is now above $43,000.

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And as minivans become ever more unaffordable, sales volumes continue to crash. Across all brands, 6,554 minivans were sold in the first-quarter of 2022, a 26-per-cent year-over-year decrease.

Rewind 15 years. In 2007, there were 7,034 Dodge Grand Caravans sold during the month of May alone.

To be fair, the lack of availability in the current inventory crisis does minivan sales figures no favours. However, the downward trend of minivan market share is undeniable, and in a market where virtually every automaker and almost all nameplates struggled in 2022’s first-quarter — overall auto sales were down 12 per cent — the minivan sector’s 26-per-cent drop was noteworthy to say the least.

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Compare the specs of all the premium minivans

How does it all break down? We’re taking a van by van by van by van by van look at the entire segment. And while we’re here, we’ll make room to highlight two other van sectors for good measure along with a glance at two other corners of the market that stole the van segment’s share.

Chrysler Pacifica: 2,154, up 50 per cent

One look at the entire spectrum of Chrysler/Dodge minivan volume is all it takes to see that, well, sales of these Canadian-built vans no longer qualify for anything resembling best-selling-vehicle status. As for the Pacifica, specifically, 2022 is off to a rocking start. The 2,154 Pacificas sold in the first-quarter of 2022 moves this van into the category’s top spot, the first time it’s held such status since it took over from the Town & Country in 2016.

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Toyota Sienna: 2,048, down 10 per cent

Last year’s top-selling minivan is now exclusively sold in hybrid form, but all-wheel drive continues to be an option. It’s a unique offering, one that is likely to largely protect much of the Sienna’s volume in a shrinking minivan market. In 2021, for example, Toyota Sienna sales jumped 48 per cent to 11,868 units. Given the nature of the market and the nature of pandemic and the challenges of a pandemic, that’s a very healthy result for a van that averaged around 12,700 sales in the prior decade.

Chrysler Grand Caravan: 1,220, up 79 per cent

There’s a missing component here. This is the Chrysler Grand Caravan, a less costly version of the Chrysler Pacifica. Do not mistake it for the Dodge Grand Caravan, now defunct. Factor in sales of the dearly departed Grand Caravan and Stellantis’s sales of its Ontario-built vans were actually down 39 per cent in 2022’s first-quarter, a loss of more than 2,100 units.

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Honda Odyssey: 707, down 21 per cent

Just how far has the Odyssey fallen? Throughout the fourth-generation Honda van’s tenure (between 2011 and 2017), Honda Canada averaged more than 900 sales per month. Now the Odyssey, which has shed multiple layers of entry-level trims, produces only 707 sales over a three-month span. The dearth of available Odysseys certainly doesn’t help, but Odyssey volume was slipping well before the current supply crisis. Between 2019 and 2021, Honda averaged fewer than 200 Odyssey sales per month.

Kia Carnival: 424

Although the Kia Carnival brings up the back of the pack, Kia’s share of the minivan market is rising fast. Year-over-year, Kia minivan volume — the Carnival replaced the Sedona — is up 171 per cent, enough to take Kia’s share of the sector from 1.8 per cent in 2021’s first-quarter to 6.5 per cent in early 2022.

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Small commercial vans: 682, down 54 per cent

There’s essentially no connection between the small, predominantly commercial-oriented vans available in Canada in 2022 and the modern minivan market. The Ford Transit Connect, Ram ProMaster City, and Mercedes-Benz Metris are clever, sure, but they’re also narrow, industrial, and lacking the family-friendly tech functionality of the Pacifica, Sienna, Grand Caravan, Odyssey, and Carnival. Small commercial vans account for only 11 per cent of the overall commercial van sector.

Large commercial vans: 5,416, down 38 per cent

What if a minivan is just too small? There’s always 15-passenger vans from makers of full-size commercial vans. Granted, few of those vans are built with people in mind. Ordinarily, they’re constructed with enormous cargo compartments for electricians, plumbers, couriers, and general contractors. Regardless of how many occupants are squeezed inside one of these vans — Ford Transit, Chevrolet Express, GMC Savana, Ram ProMaster, Mercedes-Benz Sprinter — they’re always drivers of major profit for their respective manufacturers. And they’re everywhere: Ford’s 2,380-unit Transit tally from Q1 outperformed every minivan on the market.

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Large SUVs/crossovers: 19,085, down 21 per cent

Despite the near absence of minivan sales in Canada, plenty of new vehicle buyers are still opting for three rows of seating. Instead of the Toyota Sienna, they choose the Toyota Highlander. Rather than the Kia Carnival, they select a Kia Telluride. With the Nissan Quest and Mazda MPV out of the question, buyers now choose the Pathfinder and CX-9. This large SUV segment, even without a large crop of premium brand alternatives tabulated, outsells minivans by roughly 3-to-1.

Small and midsize SUVs/crossovers: 81,437, down 15 per cent

The average number of children born per person in Canada fell 17 per cent between 2008 and 2020. Fewer children creates the possibility of fewer seats required per vehicle. Downsizing leads to greater affordability; improved fuel efficiency is an added bonus. The small SUV/crossover sector, led by the Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V, haven’t generated all of their momentum from lost minivan sales — compact and midsize cars are at the root of this segment’s growth. But the ability for smaller modern families to consider an Escape, as opposed to a larger family choosing a Ford Windstar, has undeniably had an impact.