Eagles vs. Chiefs predictions: Super Bowl 2023 picks, analysis

Six months and 283 games later, we’ve finally arrived at Super Bowl 57 and this long-awaited matchup between the top-seeded Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs – both of whom won 14 games in the regular season before marching their way to Glendale, Ariz.

The Eagles’ path was decidedly easier to this point, though they looked utterly dominant en route to their first Super Bowl berth since winning it all in 2018. The Chiefs, meanwhile, had to claw their way to a third title appearance in the last four seasons and first since getting blown out by the Buccaneers in 2021.

Here’s how we’re betting Super Bowl 57, which kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET on Fox.

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Eagles vs. Chiefs pick

Eagles vs. Chiefs prediction and analysis

There are so many reasons to bet the Eagles here that it’s hard to know where to start. So let’s open with a tried and true method for betting and life itself: follow the money.

When this game opened at pick ‘em, I was shocked that Philadelphia wasn’t favored after looking like the best team in the league for virtually the entire season. So were sharp bettors, who immediately pounced on the NFC champions and bet them as high as -2.5.

That’s a big deal: only 18 times in Super Bowl history has the point spread moved at least 1.5 points from opening to closing, and the teams on the positive end of that shift have gone 16-2 straight up / 14-4 against the spread. Similarly, over the last 15 years, the team to draw early action on the point spread is a stellar 11-3-1 ATS.

So why are sharp bettors all over the Eagles? The easy answer – aside from a roster advantage at nearly every position on the field – is their dominance in the trenches.

This team’s offensive line is the best in the league and one of the best in recent memory, led by five-time All-Pro center Jason Kelce and three-time All-Pro tackle Lane Johnson. They’ve helped power one of the most dangerous run games in NFL history: Philly’s 39 rushing touchdowns are the most-ever in a season, and its rush offense DVOA over Jalen Hurts’ last eight starts (30.0%) would be the second-best across an entire season.

And then there’s the Eagles’ defensive line, which Aaron Rodgers recently called one of the best he’s seen since before he entered the league in 2005. That unit is a key reason why this team finished the regular season with 70 sacks – two shy of the all-time record – and serves as a perfect complement to Philly’s star-studded secondary, which is arguably the best in the NFL.

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It all presents a major challenge for this Kansas City offense, which has struggled on this stage before. The last time the Chiefs reached the Super Bowl, they were held to a mere nine points by a Buccaneers defense built awfully similar to this Eagles’ group. A year earlier, Mahomes struggled mightily against the 49ers – throwing two picks, just as he did a year later – but survived thanks to Tyreek Hill and an established run game.

He won’t have either luxury this year. In fact, the Chiefs’ receiving corps is limping into Sunday’s contest after a physical win over the Bengals, forcing Travis Kelce to shoulder an even larger load than usual. That sounds nice on paper, but the Eagles have been sneaky effective at mucking up the middle of the field thanks to their elite cover corners along the boundaries.

So what advantages does that leave for Kansas City? In theory, it’s really just Mahomes and Kelce, with star lineman Chris Jones hoping to match the impact we can expect from Philly’s dominant front. That was enough in the AFC Championship, though sloppy play from Cincinnati and some questionable officiating certainly helped the cause.

To those crying foul on the Eagles’ path to the big game: elite teams show their true colors regardless of competition. Philadelphia is just the fifth team in NFL history to win by at least 21 points in the divisional round and conference championship; the previous four teams all won the Super Bowl by an average of 22.3 points.

In many ways, these Eagles are uniquely built to beat the Chiefs in Super Bowl 57 even without considering Kansas City’s uncertain health. Philadelphia is built to control time of possession – a proven recipe for downing Mahomes – and it can rush the passer without sacrificing coverage on the back end, freeing up defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon to throw extra bodies at the few mismatches that Chiefs coach Andy Reid will undoubtedly target.

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There are simply too many question marks on Kansas City’s side to ignore. How will Mahomes handle the Eagles’ relentless pass rush on a bum ankle? How do the Chiefs slow down a historically potent rushing attack that even the 49ers – who owned the NFL’s best defense by virtually every metric – struggled to contain a week ago?

The only real question on Philly’s side is Hurts’ health, though the Eagles looked just fine in their dominant run to this point and have the pieces to win even if he isn’t at full strength. In the end, there’s really only one question hanging in the air ahead of Sunday’s kickoff: will it even be close?

Eagles vs. Chiefs Odds (via BetMGM)

• Eagles -1.5 (-110), moneyline -125
• Chiefs +1.5 (-110), moneyline +105
• O/U 50.5 (over -115)