Electric Car Sales Boom, But Significant Shortcomings Need Fixing

The media on both sides of the Atlantic report the calm predictions of prestigious outfits like the International Energy Agency (IEA) assuring us that the electric car revolution is progressing as planned. According to the IEA, almost 1 in 5 cars sold worldwide this year will be electric.

“They (electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles) are no longer marginal or niche at all,” said Timur Gül, head of energy technology policy at the IEA in a report published in April. The Paris-based IEA is an intergovernmental organization.

But there are many aspects of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), that new buyers will find either disconcerting or downright unacceptable. I’ve reviewed about 25 BEVs after driving them all for about a week. Consistently unacceptable was their failure at long-distance cruising. The table shows a range of under-performing, expensive mainstream BEVs, likely to shock European owners if they decide to take their families on the annual holiday to the sun. The Tesla Model 3 and Y, plus the Kia Soul, have acceptable range capabilities but would be overshadowed by any cheap diesel.

Compared with internal combustion engines, particularly diesel ones, BEVs are hopeless for motorway driving at legal maximum speeds. In Britain, the motorway speed limit is 70 mph and in Europe usually 80 mph (130 km/h). Some sections of Germany’s motorways have no speed limit. This long-range shortfall can become a powerful reason not to buy a BEV. The problem has been summed up well by Peter Wells, Professor of Business and Sustainability at Cardiff Business School. He put it this way in an interview earlier this year.

“Range falls off a cliff at high speed. For an electric car, the extra energy required getting from 60 mph to 75 mph is astonishing and virtually doubles energy consumption to move all that air out of the way,” Wells said.

I’ve just reviewed a new mainstream battery electric vehicle, the Citroen e-C4 X. Over a couple of test routes, the Citroen showed that if you drove 40 miles at around the legal maximum motorway speed, about 100 miles would be removed from the claimed range availability. Given the total range available from the battery was an average 216.2 miles, that doesn’t bode well for your trip to the sun in the summer. The maximum motorway range would in theory be close to 90 miles, but you won’t want to be on the motorway with much less than 50 miles in reserve. You’ll be gagging for a diesel.

Every electric car I’ve driven relished country roads and urban, city traffic. This is where BEVs perform at their best. Constantly lifting-off the throttle activates the regenerative braking system which returns power to the battery. This Citroen didn’t reflect this though. One rural 51-mile trip removed 79 miles of range availability. A 48-mile trip removed 60 miles. Most electric cars end up with range remaining a little over the actual miles driven on local routes. Since the launch of this 50-kWh version last year, Citroen has recently added a new 54-kWh battery pack paired with a more efficient 156 hp electric motor.

“The new battery specification delivers improved energy density for enhanced driving pleasure and extended electric range of up to 260 miles, depending on version (WLTP cycle),” Citroen said.

The Citroen e-C4 is priced start £31,995 ($39,600) after tax in Britain and the tested car, the Shine Plus, retails at £35,495 ($43,950). Citroen is owned by Stellantis.

I asked Citroen to comment.

Citroen UK said it has asked its technical department to see if there was a problem with the car. Meanwhile, it pointed to advice in its vehicle brochure about driving electric vehicles.

“Several factors can impact your vehicle’s range. These include your driving speed and style, the load carried, the use of air conditioning and the terrain. Follow our advice to optimize your range. By driving smoothly you avoid excessive energy consumption. Brake and decelerate smoothly and in advance. On motorways, adhere to the speed limit, as high speeds rapidly reduce the range of your car,” Citroen said.

Another negative aspect for BEVs is the lack of an adequate recharging infrastructure. An article in the Financial Times, “Taking an electric car on the road is still a gamble in America”, by Brooke Masters, talks about the experience of an owner with a new BMW iX BEV. Initially, by charging at home and not going very far, the experience was impressive.

“Then we tried to take it on the road. A charging station black hole across much of the Midwest made that route impossible. Then, along the allegedly well-served highways between Boston, New York and Washington, we repeatedly encountered unresponsive touch screens, non-linking connectors and very slow charging. At one spot with 8 stations, the first three we tried didn’t work. Online discussion groups are filled with similar tales, suggesting mine was not an isolated experience,” the article said.

In Europe, the charging experience is often hampered by clunky payment systems. With an ICE vehicle, you drive up, pump your gas and leave in maybe 5 minutes after paying with your credit card. With a BEV, you’ll often need to download an app to activate recharging and payment. Across Europe, there are perhaps 20 different apps. Driving from Northern Germany to Southern Spain in a BEV during the holiday season would likely to be wearing.

Nevertheless, forecasts for BEV sales point to a massive liftoff in sales. According to investment bank UBS, BEV sales in the European Union (EU) will zoom from 2.1 million this year, or a market share of 16.9%, to 4.7 million (35.0%) in 2025 and 9.2 million (68%) in 2030. In the U.S. BEV sales will hit 1.2 million (7%) this year, 2.2 million (11.6%) in 2025 and 4.9 million (25.9%) in 2030.

But there are still many unsolved issues which could undermine this relentless scenario on both sides of the Atlantic. Will there be enough electricity generated to fill all these BEVs? Will there be enough raw materials like copper, lithium, and cobalt for the batteries? Will the battery price ever come down enough to allow for the mass market predicted by the UBS? Will the drive to make BEV range as good as ICE actually consume more CO2 in the process as batteries become huge, thus undermining the whole project? Will new technology like solid-state batteries arrive soon enough to make battery range acceptable and take some weight out of these behemoths? Will battery storage be available to make renewable wind and solar power affordable? Will refueling ever be as quick for BEVs as ICE vehicles? Will car parks collapse under the strain of all these monster BEVs? Will many spontaneously combust?

There is an option open for global automakers that could avoid many of these pitfalls – make them smaller. Manufacturers are trying to make BEVs the equivalent of ICE car, but that’s impossible and unaffordable. They need to concentrate on what BEVs do well – that’s local use, shopping, commuting, the school-run. A cheap, $10,000 electric runabout won’t need tax-payer subsidies and will take care of maybe 95% of normal needs. Batteries could be smaller. Long-range won’t be an issue because these little vehicles, like China’s Wuling Bingo or BYD Seagull are not designed for that.

Everyone knows small is beautiful. Small cars would turbocharge the electric revolution.

Citroen e-C4 X Shine Plus

Electric motor – 100 kW

Power – 136 hp

Torque – 260 Nm

Gearbox – Single speed

Battery – 50 kWh

Claimed range/battery capacity – 221 miles (WLTP)

WintonsWorld test range/battery capacity estimate – average 216.2 miles (5 charges)

Highway cruising range estimate – 90 miles

Highway cruising penalty – 140% (drive 40 miles, use 100 miles of range)

Charging – 7 kW wallbox 7-1/2 hours – 100kW 0-80% 30 minutes

Drive – front wheels

Acceleration – 0-60 mph 9.8 seconds

Top speed – 93 mph

Price – £35,495 ($43,950) after tax