‘Elemental’ Gets Cold Shoulder From Audiences Hot For ‘Spider-Verse’

It’s a rough year for would-be blockbusters, and even top tier animation studios like Pixar and Disney aren’t spared the pain. The latest Pixar release Elemental got the cold shoulder from audiences this weekend, with a depressing $48 million worldwide debut that includes $33 million domestic and $15 million international. But those same viewers who shrugged off Elemental are hot for super-sequel Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

Those international numbers look shocking, but it’s due to Elemental’s slow overseas rollout. Still, the numbers so far tell a pretty clear picture, and it’s one we’ve seen before. For the past four years, a large number of Disney and Pixar animated features have struggled at the box office and wound up losing money.

Onward, Soul, Raya and the Last Dragon, Encanto, Lightyear, Strange New World, and Turning Red each grossed less than $300 million — and most grossed under $200 million. Their combined total global box office is less than $1 billion, for an average per-film gross of only about $138 million.

That’s a staggering change of fortune, especially for Pixar.

Other studios’ animated theatrical releases didn’t do much better. Even better performing releases over the same period — Puss ‘n Boots: The Last Wish, Sonic the Hedgehog and Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Sing 2 — grossed less than $500 million, mostly in the range of $300-400+ million.

Only a few rare exceptions have broke out and scored big blockbuster results on par with what we’re used to seeing pre-pandemic — last year’s Minions: The Rise of Gru took $940 million in worldwide receipts, and this year’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie is one of 2023’s biggest hits at $1.3 billion.

Likewise, current release Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is on track to finish north of $550 million, and with continued strong holds it could make a run at $600 million.

So what is it that makes certain animated films succeed while Disney and Pixar mostly suffer unexpected audience disinterest?

A combination of factors are at work here. First and foremost, people just don’t go to the movies as often anymore, so when they do spend money for theatrical experiences they are more picky and already have certain films on their must-see list. And the fact is, audiences are going to make those choices based on movies they recognize, properties they are familiar with and know they already like, sequels to films they loved in the past, and movies that fit all of the previous points as well as receiving good reviews and positive word of mouth from other viewers.

That sounds simple, but it means people are less likely to take a chance on something new, or to risk their hard-earned dollars on sequels or reboots to franchises they aren’t that interested in (or which they’ve soured on). Audiences are seeking spectacle that’s worth the ticket price, and they increasingly want to see these films in premium theaters. And a lot of viewers now wait to see what other audiences say or do when a film comes out, or to see whether other films releasing later this year look like a better place to spend ticket dollars.

At home, viewers have an endless library of movies and series they can take more risks on from the comfort and ease of their living rooms. And for animation, Disney and other studios have trained everyone to expect plenty of entertainment options on streaming — including first-run films and day-and-date releases, making theatrical attendance for these animated pictures feel less necessary.

Animated films tend to fall into one of two categories in the minds of average moviegoers — animated films that are all-ages and mostly “for kids” or “for families,” and animated films that are as popular with adults and genre fans as they are with all ages viewers. The former movies are going to have suffer more in the current climate, because so many viewers have biases against animation in general and particularly “family” animated films. So to win over enough viewers to be a big hit, animated films now need to either be the go-to choice for most family audiences (and there will only be a few of those types of films each year), or be of a franchise/genre with built in audiences who already embrace animation.

Like it or not, sequels to proven franchises or adaptations/remakes of proven franchises — meaning series that still put lots of butts in seats, not series that suffered diminishing returns and wore out their welcome — are what’s most likely to earn audience attention and ticket sales. This has always been true, more or less, but it’s becoming increasingly and more narrowly the rule in the pandemic era that overlaps huge leaps in home entertainment and the new era of streaming.

Pixar’s and Disney’s names alone aren’t enough to open an original film anymore, and nor are the presence of a few popular stars. Even sequels aren’t sure bets, unless the previous movies were already doing massive numbers. Everybody and everything, from animation to superhero live-action, has seen an overall comedown in audience enthusiasm and box office totals. This comes amid soaring budgets and even more outrageously high studio CEO salaries, as well as enormous bloated bonuses for studio executives at a time of diminishing content and putting actual artists and storytellers out of work.

Studios need to learn to avoid bloated budgets, stop the insane excess of executive salaries and bonuses, and get their theatrical/streaming strategies in order instead of flailing around every time a new situation arises.

The obsession with applying tech company models and outdated “slash costs, fire everybody, sell off the company is pieces” approaches. This is a business, but it’s a business of storytelling and entertainment and art, and it’s time to put those things ahead of transnational corporate greed that funnels most of the money toward a handful of unqualified and mostly inadequate studio leadership at the expense of the actual “products” (movies, TV shows, etc) and at the expense of shareholders. They are wrecking the movie industry in plain sight, and it’s long past time to stop shrugging off the damage.

I’ll be back with more updates and analysis of box office, dear readers, so be sure to check back here again soon.