Emmys 2023: Nomination predictions for series and acting races

The Fourth of July has come and gone and now that the smoke from all those fireworks has (mostly) cleared and we’ve put away the flags and finished the potato salad, it’s time to focus on another celebration — the nominations for TV’s most prestigious award, the Emmys.

Of course, in the midst of a writers strike that seems like it will never end and an actors strike that may well soon begin, that celebration will be somewhat muted this year. (Potato salad will not be provided.)

But there will be plenty of congratulatory calls (and, sure, some finger-pointing — this is Hollywood) when Emmy nominations are announced Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. PT. Who will be smiling like Tom Wambsgans? And who will be emitting an eternal silent scream like Kendall Roy? Read on …

COMEDY SERIES
“Abbott Elementary”
“Barry”
“The Bear”
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
“Only Murders in the Building”
“Poker Face”
“Shrinking”
“Ted Lasso”

Possible surprise: “Wednesday”
Possible snub: “Shrinking”

The “Ted Lasso” quest for a third consecutive Emmy could prove challenging as its uneven third season endured more ups and downs than Keeley’s PR firm. Plus, the competition is fierce, as the comedy categories are by far the Emmys’ deepest. “Abbott Elementary” returned for a second season that built on its characters and humor, making it one of TV’s great workplace comedies. “The Bear” delivered an impeccable second season too — just after the 2023 submission deadline. So it’ll be nominated for its magnificent debut season, which premiered in June 2022, and deserves a substantial reward on its own. Add in the departing “Barry” and “Maisel,” newcomers “Shrinking” and “Poker Face,” along with the delightful “Only Murders in the Building” and you have one of the great comedy classes in Emmy history.

Will Elle Fanning make it into the mix again?

( Gareth Gatrell/Hulu)

COMEDY ACTRESS
Christina Applegate, “Dead to Me”
Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”
Natasha Lyonne, “Poker Face”
Jenna Ortega, “Wednesday”

Possible surprise: Elle Fanning, “The Great”
Possible snub: Ortega

Hard to see any surprises in this category … though Fanning did earn a nomination last year and she and co-star Nicholas Hoult were as delightful as ever in their show’s third season. She could make it in over Ortega, as “Wednesday” skews a bit young for TV academy voters. But it was probably the most-viewed show among the contenders, so I think she’s safe.

Jason Segel deftly navigates the comic and dramatic sides of his series, “Shrinking.”

(Apple TV+)

COMEDY ACTOR
Bill Hader, “Barry”
Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building”
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”
Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso”
Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”

Possible surprise: Jason Segel, “Shrinking”
Possible snub: Short

Worth noting here that submissions for the comedy categories were down this year, resulting in the lead categories going from six to five nominees and the supporting categories moving from eight to seven. That contraction will make it harder for a newcomer like Segel, who was superb at navigating the comic and dramatic aspects of “Shrinking,” to establish a foothold — even though, remarkably, he has somehow never earned an Emmy nomination. (I think that will change when “Shrinking” returns for a second season.)

Can Juno Temple earn another “Ted Lasso” nomination?

(Apple TV+)

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Alex Borstein, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear”
Sarah Goldberg, “Barry”
Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”
Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”
Hannah Waddingham, “Ted Lasso”
Lisa Ann Walter, “Abbott Elementary”

Possible surprise: Juno Temple, “Ted Lasso”
Possible snub: Goldberg

One measure of “Ted Lasso’s” strength will come in the supporting acting races. Waddingham and Temple were nominated for the show’s first two seasons, with Waddingham winning for the debut year. The series added a third supporting actress nomination last year for Sarah Niles’ calm, confident turn as Ted’s therapist.

This year, it’ll likely be “Abbott Elementary” securing three spots with “Ted Lasso” struggling to return more than just Waddingham. (No disrespect to Temple. The show’s writers either didn’t know what to do with Keeley … or just kind of hated the character.) But I could be overthinking it, as Emmy voters do tend to return to their favorites again and again, and Goldberg was overlooked last year. It’d be a travesty if that happened again, as “Barry” pushed Goldberg through multiple identities and excruciating emotions in its final season.

Harrison Ford has been an underappreciated actor. Will his comic chops in “Shrinking” earn Television Academy respect?

(Beth Dubber/Apple TV+)

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
Anthony Carrigan, “Barry”
Harrison Ford, “Shrinking”
Brett Goldstein, “Ted Lasso”
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”
Tony Shalhoub, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary”
Henry Winkler, “Barry”

Possible surprise: Phil Dunster, “Ted Lasso”
Possible snub: Ford

Like most movie stars, Ford has been underestimated as an actor his whole career, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see him left off the list. It would be unfortunate, as I think even he was surprised by how much he enjoyed himself in his comic supporting turn on “Shrinking.” Ford demonstrated an affinity for silly, physical comedy and then pierced our hearts with his portrayal of an aging therapist coping with the early stages of Parkinson’s. I’d nominate him simply for being game to sing along with Sugar Ray.

Sharon Horgan’s “Bad Sisters” is an inventive take on the revenge-thriller genre.

(Apple TV+)

DRAMA SERIES
“Andor”
“Better Call Saul”
“The Crown”
“House of the Dragon”
“The Last of Us”
“Succession”
“The White Lotus”
“Yellowjackets”

Possible surprise: “Bad Sisters”
Possible snub: “House of the Dragon”

“Game of Thrones” received 13 nominations for its debut season, and I think “House of the Dragon,” its fan-friendly prequel, will do OK too. And I’d imagine there’s room enough for two genre shows, as “Andor” earned plenty of critical acclaim, even if its plodding opening episodes tested its audience’s patience. That said — and this may be wishful thinking on my part — Sharon Horgan’s dark comic farce “Bad Sisters” could well earn a nomination for its inventive take on the revenge-thriller genre. And it featured an ensemble that rivals the likes of “Succession” and “Better Call Saul” for the category’s best-in-class prize.

Helen Mirren should make it into the nominations.

(Emerson Miller/Paramount+)

DRAMA ACTRESS
Sharon Horgan, “Bad Sisters”
Melanie Lynskey, “Yellowjackets”
Helen Mirren, “1923”
Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”
Sarah Snook, “Succession”
Imelda Staunton, “The Crown”

Possible surprise: Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
Possible snub: Mirren

Once you get past Lynskey, Ramsey, Snook and Staunton, this category is something of a free-for-all with past favorites like Elisabeth Moss (“The Handmaid’s Tale”) and Russell battling Juliette Lewis (overlooked last year for “Yellowjackets”), the electrifying Emma D’Arcy (“House of the Dragon”), gifted multi-hyphenate Horgan and a certified legend (Mirren, a four-time Emmy winner). I’m leaning toward the Brits.

Jeremy Strong, left, Kieran Culkin and Brian Cox could all receive Emmy nominations in this category, a first should it come to pass.

(Graeme Hunter/HBO)

DRAMA ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, “The Old Man”
Brian Cox, “Succession”
Kieran Culkin, “Succession”
Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”
Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us”
Jeremy Strong, “Succession”

Possible surprise: Diego Luna, “Andor”
Possible snub: Bridges

Plenty of shows have had two actors nominated for this category. Three? That’d be historic. Now comes the hard part … which Roy family member depiction do you vote for?

Carol Burnett played a key role in the final season of “Better Call Saul.”

(Greg Lewis/AMC)

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Carol Burnett, “Better Call Saul”
J. Smith-Cameron, “Succession”
Jennifer Coolidge, “The White Lotus”
Elizabeth Debicki, “The Crown”
Meghann Fahy, “The White Lotus”
Aubrey Plaza, “The White Lotus”
Christina Ricci, “Yellowjackets”
Rhea Seehorn, “Better Call Saul”

Possible surprise: Justine Lupe, “Succession”
Possible snub: Burnett

Am I including Burnett in order to go on one final rant about “Better Call Saul” and the Emmys? Maybe, though Burnett played a key role in the final season of the series with her riveting portrayal of a decent woman compelled to do the right thing. Her tense final scene with Bob Odenkirk is worthy of reward all by itself. NBC recently devoted a two-hour prime time special to the beloved icon, which is all well and good. But how about honoring the work she’s doing in the here and now? Given “Better Call Saul’s” ridiculous history at the Emmys — 46 nominations, zero wins — I’m keeping my expectations in check.

Matt Smith was arguably the best thing in “House of the Dragon” and should land an Emmy nomination.

(Ollie Upton / HBO)

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
F. Murray Abraham, “The White Lotus”
Nicholas Braun, “Succession”
Giancarlo Esposito, “Better Call Saul”
Matthew Macfadyen, “Succession”
Alan Ruck, “Succession”
Will Sharpe, “The White Lotus”
Alexander Skarsgård, “Succession”
Matt Smith, “House of the Dragon”

Possible surprise: Tom Hollander, “The White Lotus”
Possible snub: Smith

The surest bet is “Succession” cast members taking half this category. (Ruck can finally celebrate!) The remaining four slots could be carved up by actors from “The White Lotus” (but which ones?) and “Better Call Saul” (though Jonathan Banks hasn’t been nominated since 2019). It’s hard to discount six-time winner John Lithgow, terrific as the weary FBI agent in “The Old Man.” But Smith’s full-throttle embrace of melodrama was arguably the best thing about “House of the Dragon,” and I’m thinking voters remembered it fondly when casting their ballots.

The story of “Beef,” starring Steven Yeun, is sparked by a parking lot altercation.

(Netflix)

LIMITED SERIES
“Beef”
“Black Bird”
“Daisy Jones & the Six”
“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”
“A Small Light”

Possible surprise: “Fleishman Is in Trouble”
Possible snub: “A Small Light”

Two shows about serial killers (“Dahmer,” “Black Bird”), another centered on the Holocaust (the inspiring “A Small Light”) … and somehow the toughest watch belonged to the one sparked by a road rage incident and fueled by the anger and desperation flowing through our world right now (“Beef”). And that is the series that could wind up prevailing in September — or whenever the Emmys are handed out. (PSA: Please reward the writers for their work.)

Bel Powley’s strong performance in “A Small Light” should earn her an Emmy nomination.

(Dusan Martincek/National Geographic for Disney)

LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain, “George & Tammy”
Dominique Fishback, “Swarm”
Elizabeth Olsen, “Love & Death”
Bel Powley, “A Small Light”
Rachel Weisz, “Dead Ringers”
Ali Wong, “Beef”

Possible surprise: Emily Blunt, “The English”
Possible snub: Powley

Powley’s portrayal of Miep Gies, one of the Dutch civilians who helped hide the Frank family from the Nazis, was extraordinary, guiding the audience through this horrific period of history with a guileless blend of wit, courage and indefatigable energy. The series didn’t receive as much hype as many of the other contenders, but those who saw “A Small Light” were rewarded.

You have to be more than a little brave to portray everyone’s favorite accordion-playing song parodist as Daniel Radcliffe did in “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story.”

(Courtesy of TIFF)

LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE ACTOR
Steve Carell, “The Patient”
Taron Egerton, “Black Bird”
Evan Peters, “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”
Daniel Radcliffe, “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story”
Michael Shannon, “George & Tammy”
Steven Yeun, “Beef”

Possible surprise: Ben Whishaw, “This Is Going to Hurt”
Possible snub: Carell

You have to be very game and more than a little brave to portray everyone’s favorite accordion-wielding song parodist. Radcliffe proved up for the challenge, and he’s likely going to be the only actor among the nominees who starred in a TV movie. Hope he celebrates with a package of (m-m-m-my) bologna.

Claire Danes has a key scene that upends everything you think you know about her Rachel Fleishman character in “Fleishman Is in Trouble.”

(Matthias Clamer/FX)

LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bello, “Beef”
Claire Danes, “Fleishman Is in Trouble”
Michael Learned, “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”
Camila Morrone, “Daisy Jones & The Six”
Niecey Nash-Betts, “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”
Ashley Park, “Beef”
Lily Rabe, “Love & Death”

Possible surprise: Olivia Colman, “Great Expectations”
Possible snub: Morrone

I could be underestimating “Fleishman,” an imperfect though nuanced look at marriage, mortality and the morass of the middle-aged. It was sharp, funny and, at times, quite moving and could well land nominations for limited series and leads Lizzy Caplan and Jesse Eisenberg. One spot is assured though — Danes’ mind-blowing meltdown as the show’s exhausted achiever, a showcase that happens late in the series and upends everything viewers thought they knew about her character.

Paul Walter Hauser’s creepy psycho in “Black Bird” stays with you.

(Apple TV+)

LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTOR
Rodney Burford, “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”
Paul Walter Hauser, “Black Bird”
Richard Jenkins, “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”
Joseph Lee, “Beef”
Ray Liotta, “Black Bird”
Young Mazino, “Beef”
Liev Schreiber, “A Small Light”

Possible surprise: Domhnall Gleeson, “The Patient”
Possible snub: Schreiber

If you missed “Beef,” “Black Bird” and “Dahmer,” you’re going to be lost during this portion of the show. Shortcut homework assignment: Watch “Black Bird” as Hauser is likely to win the Emmy. His creepy psycho is still whispering to me in my dreams.