Like many fans, ESPN’s projection model has doubted the Miami Heat throughout their unexpected playoff run.
Despite shocking the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks in the first round, the Heat still entered the Eastern Conference Finals as severe underdogs. ESPN Analytics gave Miami a shockingly low 3 percent probability of beating the Boston Celtics.
Fast-forward to the NBA Finals, the forecaster doesn’t like Miami’s chances of extending the series with a Game 5 victory over the Denver Nuggets.
ESPN Analytics gives Denver an 81.9 percent chance of securing its first-ever championship Monday night.
It’s similar to Denver’s 80.9 percent odds of winning Game 2, but Miami pulled off a crucial 111-108 win at Ball Arena. However, the Nuggets took both games in South Beach to take control of the series.
The Nuggets, just like in Game 2, are 8.5-point favorites. They’ve obtained all three victories by double-digits and are 40-8 at home this season (playoffs included).
Given its postseason projections, it should come as no surprise that ESPN doesn’t like Miami’s chances of completing a comeback. Its Basketball Power Index assigns the Heat a minuscule 0.8 percent chance of erasing a 3-1 deficit to win the NBA Finals.
Game 5 begins Monday at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
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