Essential Politics: Will Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan be struck down?

Earlier this month, the Supreme Court said it would rule next year on the legality of President Biden‘s plan for limited student loan forgiveness.

The decision was a blow to the Biden administration, which had asked the high court to immediately revive the plan, which would have canceled up to $20,000 for over 20 million borrowers but was blocked by a lower court. Republicans, who have filed multiple lawsuits against the plan, contend it will increase inflation and the national debt. After the high court issues a ruling, the public may finally know if loan forgiveness is here to stay.

What could this case mean for borrowers? Will the high court kill the plan?

Hello, friends, I’m Erin B. Logan. I’m a national political reporter with the Los Angeles Times. This week, we are going to the Supreme Court and Biden’s plan to forgive some student loans.

Will SCOTUS kill the plan?

Student loan borrowers were counting down the days until Jan. 1, when interest payments were set to resume. But after it became clear that the fight over Biden’s proposal would not be resolved before payments resumed, his administration gave borrowers another extension — till next June.

Although the justices could always surprise the experts, many longtime court observers believe the Biden administration will likely lose. Conservative justices make up a 6-3 majority on the court.

Ohio State University political science professor Gregory Caldeira told CNBC that he would not be shocked if the Supreme Court struck the plan down.

“The court’s conservatives have been very aggressive in striking down the decisions of Congress and the president,” Caldeira told the outlet.

In a statement, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the administration welcomes the high court’s decision to hear the case. She called the program a necessity for middle- and working-class Americans and said it is “legal, supported by careful analysis from administration lawyers.”

The latest from the campaign trail

—Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock defeated Republican Herschel Walker on Tuesday in Georgia’s U.S. Senate runoff, securing a 51st seat for his party in Congress’ upper chamber and giving it greater power to push its agenda in a closely divided Washington, Times writer Jenny Jarvie reported. The Associated Press projected Warnock as the winner Tuesday night, though official results will take longer to tabulate. Warnock’s victory means Senate Democrats — as long as they vote in unity — will no longer need to rely on Vice President Kamala Harris to cast tiebreaking votes. It also lessens the ability of moderate Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin III of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona to block or soften legislation, as they’ve done in the current Congress.

—Former President Trump faced rebuke Sunday from officials in both parties after calling for the “termination” of parts of the Constitution over his lie that the 2020 election was stolen, the Associated Press reported. Trump, who announced last month that he is running again for president, made the claim over the weekend on his Truth Social media platform. Trump, who is the first U.S. president to be impeached twice and whose term ended with his supporters violently storming the Capitol in a deadly bid to halt the peaceful transition of power on Jan. 6, 2021, faces escalating criminal investigations, including several that could lead to indictments. They include the probe into classified documents seized by the FBI from Mar-a-Lago, and ongoing state and federal inquiries related to efforts to remain in office despite his 2020 election defeat.

—Arizona’s top officials certified the midterm election results Monday, formalizing victories for Democrats over Republicans who falsely claimed that the 2020 election was rigged, the Associated Press reported. The certification opens a five-day window for formal election challenges. Republican Kari Lake, who lost the race for governor, is expected to file a lawsuit in the coming days after she spent weeks criticizing the administration of the election. Election results have largely been certified without issue around the country, but Arizona was an exception. Several Republican-controlled counties delayed their certification despite no evidence of problems with the vote count. Cochise County in southeastern Arizona blew past the deadline last week, forcing a judge to intervene Thursday and order the county supervisors to certify the election by the end of the day.

The view from Washington

—The Supreme Court’s conservative majority on Monday sounded ready to rule that a Christian website designer has a free-speech right to refuse to work with same-sex couples planning to marry, Times writer David G. Savage reported. The justices heard arguments in a Colorado case that posed a conflict between the 1st Amendment rights of a business owner and a state antidiscrimination law that gives customers a right to equal service without regard to their race, religion, gender or sexual orientation. The outcome could cut out a hole in the laws of California and 21 other mostly blue states that directly forbid discrimination against LGBTQ customers.

—The Biden administration on Monday granted more than 100,000 Haitians living in the United States the chance to apply for work permits and protection from deportation to their home country, which has been devastated by an earthquake, disease outbreaks and widespread violence, Times writer Hamed Aleaziz reported. The U.S. had previously granted this designation, known as temporary protected status, to Haitians in May 2021. Biden’s move ensures that Haitians who have been in the country as of Nov. 6 this year will be eligible to apply for the status. The Biden administration has also allowed Ukrainians and Afghans in the U.S. to apply for temporary protected status this year. Biden’s expansion of TPS is a shift from his predecessor’s practice.

—Donald Trump’s company was convicted of tax fraud Tuesday for helping executives dodge taxes on lavish perks such as Manhattan apartments and luxury cars in a significant repudiation of financial practices at the former president’s business, the Associated Press reported. A jury found two corporate entities at the Trump Organization guilty on all 17 counts, including conspiracy and falsification of business records. Trump himself was not on trial. The verdict came on the second day of deliberations. The conviction is a validation for New York prosecutors who have spent three years investigating the former president and his businesses.

—Even before Republicans take control of the House in January, their narrow majority is exposing the long-standing rift between the party’s right-flank Freedom Caucus and its dwindling center-right, Times writer Nolan D. McCaskill reported. It’s a struggle that not only threatens to derail House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s bid to become the next speaker, but also will shape how the GOP exerts its new authority over the next two years.

The view from California

—Vice President Kamala Harris will swear in Karen Bass as the 43rd mayor of Los Angeles on Sunday, Times writer Courtney Subramanian reported. The pairing is freighted with historical significance: In 2020, Harris became the first Black woman and first South Asian woman to be elected vice president. Last month, Bass became the first Black woman to be elected mayor of L.A. Bass asked the vice president to administer the oath of office as a nod to their status as two of California’s most powerful Black women, according to a Harris aide. The ceremony, set to take place on the steps of City Hall, will include musical and cultural performances. The vice president will not deliver remarks.

—Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday unveiled an outline of his plan to place a cap on oil refinery profits in California, a proposal he’s asking lawmakers to approve in hopes of reducing future spikes in gasoline prices, Times writer Taryn Luna reported. After convening a special legislative session, the governor publicly shared a first look at his plan more than two months after he said he would ask the Legislature to penalize what he called excessive profits by the oil industry, accusing companies of price gouging by intentionally elevating the cost of gas for California drivers. The industry contends recent high prices are a result of the state’s policies to phase out the use of oil and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. The companies argue Newsom has politicized the issue and a penalty on them will only exacerbate the problem in a state that already levies heavy taxes on the industry.

—The Los Angeles teachers union is pressing its demands for a 20% raise over two years, smaller class sizes and a steep reduction in standardized testing — the latest stress test for the nation’s second-largest school district and Supt. Alberto Carvalho as the system struggles to address students’ deep learning setbacks and mental health needs in the wake of the pandemic, Times writer Howard Blume reported. For United Teachers Los Angeles — which staged three simultaneous rallies Monday across the vast school system — its contract platform speaks to the intense pressures that members say are pummeling their profession, leading to dire teacher shortages in California and throughout the nation.

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