Exact Super Bowl matchup odds, predictions: Will we see Bills vs. Eagles?

With every passing week, the Super Bowl market gets tighter at the top. The Bills (+325) are as short of favorites as we’ve seen all season, while the Chiefs (+550) and Eagles (+650) are the only other teams dealing shorter than 10/1 ahead of Week 6.

If you’re looking for long-shot prices without compromising on elite teams, there’s still plenty of value in the exact Super Bowl matchup market, which carries immense risk and incredible payouts.

Here are a few matchups worth betting at BetMGM after the first five weeks of the season:

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Bills vs. Eagles (+800)

Isn’t this the matchup we all want to see? The Eagles look like the best team in the NFC and maybe the entire league after a 5-0 start to the year, while the Bills look like a mostly realized version of the juggernaut we’ve been waiting on for three seasons.

In some ways, these two teams mirror each other in construction and title upside. Though Philly’s attack is much more run-focused than Buffalo’s, both teams rely on high-level play from their dual-threat quarterbacks surrounded by dynamic skill-position weapons and a stout and experienced offensive line – which sets up their tenacious defenses to key in on the passing game after building early leads.

The Bills are the better team on paper, though the Eagles have an easier path to the Super Bowl given the relative struggles for the NFC’s top teams. This is a short price to pay, but it’s also the most obvious matchup on the board from what we’ve seen to this point.

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers (+2200)

We saw these teams play one another in Week 4 in a rematch of their Super Bowl matchup a few years back. Would anyone really be surprised if we saw them face off one more time?

Though the Bills have garnered most of the hype in the AFC, the Chiefs are still the “team to beat” after reaching four straight conference championship games, winning two of them and holding a late lead in the other two. Conversely, the Buccaneers are battling through injuries but still possess among the most talented rosters in the NFC when healthy.

The biggest challenge to this bet is whether Tampa Bay can right the ship come playoff time, though a weak division around the Bucs should mean a solid path through the postseason. If Tom Brady and co. are healthy enough to resemble their 2020 iteration, we could get a long-awaited rematch with Patrick Mahomes on the big stage.

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Ravens vs. Packers (+6600)

Much like the matchup above, we haven’t seen the best of either team to this point in the season. The Ravens have lost two massive leads in the fourth quarter, while the Packers clearly aren’t right after last week’s shocking loss to the Giants.

Still, we know both of these teams have title upside once they sort out their early-season issues – and does anyone really think that won’t happen? Lamar Jackson is in the midst of an MVP-caliber season, and his defense stepped up to support him in last week’s sluggish win over the Bengals. And Green Bay still has the two-time reigning MVP in Aaron Rodgers, an elite two-headed backfield, and a secondary loaded with talent on the other side.

Rodgers’ days are winding down after a Hall-of-Fame caliber career, and it feels like he’s still got one last run in him after his late-stage resurgence. The same applies for Jackson, whose postseason struggles have overshadowed his regular-season brilliance. At this price, I’d gladly bet on these two teams ironing out the kinks ahead of potential deep playoff runs.