Flying taxis: lack of landing spots will delay sector take-off 

Driverless cars are already a reality in San Francisco. One day, perhaps, flying taxis will cruise above them. Two important hurdles stand in the way. First, regulators have not yet approved the vehicles. Second, they have nowhere to land. 

The special purpose acquisition frenzy of 2021 that led revenue-less electric plane companies such as Santa Cruz’s Joby, Archer Aviation, Lilium and Vertical Aerospace to join markets has died away. Despite raising hundreds of millions of dollars, commercial operations have not yet been launched. Morgan Stanley’s prediction that autonomous aircraft could have a total addressable market of $1.5tn by 2040 looks increasingly outlandish. Valuations have plummeted. Spacs are typically priced at $10 a unit. Joby now trades at less than $8, Archer at $4.45, Lilium at $1.35 and Vertical at just 17 cents. 

Yet investments are still being made. After United Airlines ordered 100 vehicles from Archer it signed a deal for 200 from Eve Air Mobility. Boeing is backing autonomous air taxi start-up Wisk. The Federal Aviation Administration expects high demand for air taxis at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. Billy Nolen, the FAA official who made that forecast, has since joined Archer. News of his appointment lifted Archer’s share price by a fifth.

Yet even if vehicles receive regulatory approval, infrastructure remains a problem. Air taxis, or eVTOLs (electric vertical take-off and landing), need large, flat, obstacle-free surfaces to land safely. If they are too noisy, city dwellers will complain. Lacuna Technologies, which creates software for transportation networks, points out that electric planes will also need charging points.

Companies plan to use existing heliports. Archer, for example, hopes to fly between Downtown Manhattan’s heliport and Newark airport. But to create useful services they need multiple, convenient, city-centre spots. Without a network of landing and take-off points, flying taxi services will be grounded.