The Gonzaga Bulldogs have regularly been a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament over the past number of years.
This season, they’re slotted in as a No. 3 seed and for the first time in a while, most people aren’t expecting a championship run from them. Does that mean now is the time they’ll pull it off, the one year people don’t expect them too?
They’ll begin their tournament play on Friday when they take on No. 14 Grand Canyon. Their head coach, Bryce Drew, hit one of the great buzzer beaters in Tournament history in 1998 for Valparaiso against Ole Miss.
Can he now lead a team to a major upset as a head coach? Let’s dive into the odds for the game and then I’ll break down my best bet.
Grand Canyon vs. Gonzaga odds, spread, and total
Grand Canyon vs. Gonzaga prediction and pick
There is no doubt that Gonzaga is the more talented team and should win the game, but can the Bulldogs cover this double-digit spread?
I’m not so sure.
Gonzaga is just as good of a shooting team as they had been in previous years, ranking second in the country in effective field goal percentage. Where they lack is defense, coming in at 174th in defensive efficiency. That is a stark difference compared to past seasons. For example, just last season, Gonzaga ranked fifth in the country in defensive efficiency.
What that does is it leaves them susceptible to teams that can shoot the ball. Grand Canyton is one of those teams. Grand Canyon comes into the game ranking 63rd in the country in effective field goal percentage.
Grand Canyon may also do a solid job of slowing down the red hot Gonzaga offense. The Bulldogs rank 61st in two-point shot rate, with the majority of their offense coming from down low. Grand Canyon comes in at 44th in opponent two-point field goal percentage, keeping teams to shooting an average of 46.8% from down low.
Where Grand Canyon lacks is the inability to force turnovers or create extra scoring chances, which will keep them from winning the game. But, I’m not betting on them to win the game, they only need to keep it within a 16-point score.
I’ll back the Antelopes sharp shooting and interior defense and take them to cover this spread in the Round of 64 matchup.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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