After opening worldwide to nearly $290 million — far ahead of expectations internationally and right in line with domestic tracking — James Gunn’s final Marvel Studios entry (for at least five or so years) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will blast past $500 million at the global box office this weekend.
Chukwudi Iwuji and Kai Zen star in “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”
On pace to hit $390+ million as it heads into Friday’s box office, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 should add another $50 million from North American markets and $80 million from foreign markets, to push it toward $520+/- million.
While it’s true Vol. 3’s the domestic bow of $118 million was significantly lower than the $146.5 million debut of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 in 2017, the third chapter scored excellent attendance overseas and beat predictions handedly.
With great word of mouth in the form of an “A” grade from audiences via Cinemascore and a “Certified Fresh” 82% critics’ score at Rotten Tomatoes, the film enjoyed healthy Monday receipts worldwide — topping $300 million including $20 million internationally — and should have good holds this weekend.
If it manages to exceed expectations again overseas while also overperforming domestically due to its slower start followed by growing buzz and positive recommendations, then it might finish the weekend with more than $530 million.
The only notable newcomers challenging for weekend dollars will be Book Club: The Next Chapter and Rally Road Racers, but neither should serve as much beyond counter-programming for adult and family dollars that weren’t likely to go to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 anyway. So I don’t see much to diminish the strong word of mouth for the film’s sophomore weekend.
But for now, I’m putting a pin in $520 million as my relatively moderate estimate of Vol. 3’s gross by Sunday close of business, and will revise up or down as the weekend gets underway.
It won’t be until the weekend of May 19th that Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will lose its status as king of the box office, when Fast X races into multiplexes as the eleventh entry in the Fast & Furious franchise.
Which means Marvel’s trilogy-capping sci-fi superhero sequel has one more weekend to take advantage of the open field and audience recommendations, and will probably wind up with roughly $650 million in worldwide receipts, likely more. But the range could be as wide as $635 to $670 million, entirely depending on that word of mouth.
This is where external factors kick in. The most obvious and enduring one is the ongoing Covid pandemic, which has a new variant slowly dominating new cases and could see spikes in infection rates if the recent government “end” of Covid emergency policies results in diminished social precautions and attention to the continued dangers of community spread.
Another element that could have an impact, particularly in coastal cities like Los Angeles and New York City, is the Writers Guild of America strike. Negative attention to studio treatment of writers, combined with growing public awareness and discussion of A.I. threats to citizens’ livelihoods in a wide variety of industries, and calls for boycotts of popular streaming services is getting a lot of press attention and finding its way into public discussions on social media.
Even a moderate reduction in audience attendance or suppressed enthusiasm due to growing sympathy for writers and animosity toward studios — made worse as reports of huge multi-million bonuses for corporate executives come alongside reports of mass layoffs, gutting of content on streamers, cancellations of popular shows, and continued financial concerns and difficulties for many average people — could hamper Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’s ability to continue building on its healthy opening and good reception.
Disney-Marvel need Guardians to be a hit. This is Marvel’s blockbuster offering to launch the 2023 summer season, and it comes after the MCU has struggled to put up the same consistent impressive box office numbers it earned during the record-shattering Infinity Saga.
The Covid pandemic has absolutely hit all studios hard, to be sure, and the end of such a monumental and historic collection of franchises in the two-part combination of Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame was inevitably going to be tough to follow. But aside from a couple of glaring exceptions, Phase Four and the kickoff of Phase Five have lagged and failed to enjoy the same level of audience or critical enthusiasm.
At this point, it’s clear we can’t expect Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 to deliver a box office result significantly ahead of Vol. 2, and it’s not yet clear if it will even be able to match its predecessor’s gross. So a $900 million result is probably unlikely, but it’s still too early to fairly make that call.
I’ll continue to watch the box office and provide updates, as well as more news and analysis, including about the WGA strike and how it’s shutting down Hollywood. So be sure to check back here again soon.
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