Another weekend of high audience enthusiasm and strong box office holds is lifting everyone’s prospects this weekend in a field increasingly crowded by big summer franchises. Which is good news for Marvel Studios, as Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will rocket to $730+ million worldwide.
Pom Klementieff, Sean Gunn & Vin Diesel, Chris Pratt, Dave Bautista, and Karen Gillian star in … [+]
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 opened with an enormous $289 million, but there was some discrepancy between its higher-than-expected international debut and its softer domestic bow. This caused some early questions about whether Vol. 3 could overcome the relatively modest early North American ticket sales and generate enough positive word of mouth to enjoy small weekly declines.
Sure enough, the exceptional emotional resonance and wonderful storytelling in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 motivated repeat viewings for some viewers and ensured everyone told their friends and family to see the movie as well. Superhero films can usually expect drops in the 60+% range on their second weekends of theatrical release, but Vol. 3 posted an impressive $92 million sophomore outing with just a 49% dip off excellent word of mouth and critical reviews.
Now, as we see, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 continued to hold well in subsequent weeks, even against the arrival of challenger Fast X with its $318 million global debut (which propelled the entire Fast & Furious franchise to new record heights). At this point, I think Vol. 3’s trajectory points pretty clearly to an $800+/- million finish, with roughly $790 million as the lower end of likely outcomes and perhaps $810+ million as the higher end of where it might wind up. It still has plenty of room to maneuver in the marketplace right now, so I’ll keep an eye on it and adjust my estimates accordingly in the coming weeks.
Fast X has topped $500 million worldwide in its own race at the box office. International audiences love Fast X, creating a nearly four-to-one ratio in the film’s box office receipts to date — just north of $100 million domestically, and $400 million from other markets.
The Little Mermaid bowed this weekend to $118 million domestically and a surprising low $67 million in international receipts. As I discuss in more detail in my full box office coverage about The Little Mermaid’s opening weekend, there were several factors to consider here, including a vicious and evil racist campaign targeting the film and its star Halle Bailey — a campaign especially loud in key foreign markets, where the film also suffered at the box office — as well as the simply staggering combination of other blockbusters in the marketplace that are pulling in the bulk of overseas viewership.
Elsewhere, The Super Mario Bros. Movie is on track now to top $1.3 billion, an incredible performance that defied expectations right out the gate and continued to put up big numbers and small drops week after week. That it remains in the weekend top five this deep into its theatrical run, in the face of so much other blockbuster competition, and after being available on home entertainment makes it all the more impressive.
As we enter June, the competition at the box office is going to heat up and it will be harder for these films to maintain firm weekly holds. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse opens June 2nd, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts arrives June 9th, and The Flash hits theaters June 16th.
July keeps the hits coming, with Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, Barbie, Haunted Mansion, and a host of comedy and horror counter-programing all taking up additional room in the marketplace and squeezing out any films that can’t keep up.
So I think we’ll see The Super Mario Bros. Movie mint a few more coins and then finally fade out fo the picture, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will encounter more typical weekly declines, and Fast X will burn rubber toward $800+/- million territory and see whether it has further to go or will be running on fumes by that point in time.
The Little Mermaid, as the newest entry to the box office race, has more time and plenty of brand appeal and enthusiastic family audiences to play to for a while, but come June and July, it’s going to be a real battle for every film to hold onto its theater space and maintain audiences’ attention.
Stay tuned and check back here again soon for more box office updates, movie news and analysis, and of course plenty of reviews coming as the summer progresses, dear readers.
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