High Mileage EVs Win CO2 Race, But Low Use Favors Hybrids – Report

The argument about how long an electric car will take to reach break-even carbon emissions (CO2) compared with a combustion car has taken another twist.

It’s linked to distance travelled and suggests if you don’t drive very far every year, driving a hybrid is much more efficient if you want to save CO2 emissions and the planet, according to a report from British independent testing company Emissions Analytics. The report uses British data, which is about average throughout Europe, Emissions Analytics said.

If you drive 30,000 EV miles a year you will break-even in 1 year, but according to the study this would only be about 0.4% of vehicles. If you drive up to 10,000 miles a year in an electric car it will take 5 years before you break-even with the CO2 emitted by a combustion-powered vehicle. That would be about 1/3 of vehicles.

Another one-third of EV drivers with only 5,000 miles a year will take 24 years to break-even with an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle’s CO2 output, according to the study.

“The fewer miles driven, the longer it takes to reach the break-even CO2 point”, said Emissions Analytics CEO Nick Molden.

“And for about one-third of vehicles, they will never be driven enough to justify being electric for the purposes of reducing carbon emission,” Molden said.

Because Americans drive much further every year than other nationalities, that makes the U.S. much more suitable for vehicle electrification, the report said.

When the electric car revolution was first mooted, it was assumed electric cars meant zero CO2 emissions and ICE cars were simply dirty. But the process of building an electric car turned out to be high in CO2 emissions. There was also the need for exotic and scarce minerals for the batteries, plus the end-of-life recycling process.

The nature of electricity generation is also a big factor in CO2 emissions. Lots of Tesla drivers in Germany will be embarrassed because around 1/3 of the nation’s electricity has reverted to coal generation after Ukraine war energy shortages, according to the Financial Times.

The calculation about how many miles have to be driven in an electric car to reach break-even with ICE vehicles is hotly contested and highly politicized. Green enthusiasts who reckon electric cars are perfect in every way will insist on a very low number. The other side of the argument will say electric cars are part of a conspiracy to force people out of their vehicles and on to the bus, bike or sidewalk. Adherents will swear to a much higher number.

According to a Reuters study a couple of years ago, this can range from 13,500 miles in perfect conditions for a Tesla Model 3 with green electric generation, to nearly 79,000 when the EV isn’t very efficient and electricity is generated solely by coal in say Poland or China.

According to Emissions Analytics, the payback can be quick for drivers with a large annual mileage. An electric car driver managing 30,000 miles a year gets payback in that first year, but that’s only 0.4% of vehicles.

A full hybrid electric vehicle (FHEV) makes much more sense for the lightest users. These hybrids are now marketed as “self-charging”. They will cut CO2 emissions and won’t waste scarce resources by needing huge batteries with scarce and expensive materials like lithium, nickel, cobalt, magnesium, and graphite.

“The lightest users never practically pay back that investment if they switch to a BEV (battery electric vehicle), only offsetting half of the battery emissions. Therefore, those light users are much better switching to the FHEV. Most crucial is the proportion of cars that fall into this category: about one-third. If these people take the FHEV option rather than switching to the BEV, the overall reduction in CO2 across the board would be 17% greater, and the reduction in the need for scarce battery materials would be around 32%,” the report said.

“As a good guide, the CO2 footprint of BEVs is greater than that of ICE vehicles because of the emissions from making the battery, as the elimination of the engine and other components is roughly offset by the electric motors. Further, electricity generation according to the average mix in Europe or the U.S. creates about as much CO2 as the oil extraction, refining and distribution”.

“Therefore, switching to a BEV initially makes CO2 worse, until a ‘break-even’ point is reached after a period. These averages are offered as a rule-of-thumb to simplify a complex picture and reveal the break-even concept, not to downplay the actual variability and spread in manufacturing emissions and grid mix in specific places”.

The EU plans to ban the sale of new ICE vehicles, hybrids and plug-in hybrids in 2035, with minor indulgences. Britain has brought forward this date to 2030. The U.S. is pointing in the same direction but more narrowly and with some exemptions for plug-in hybrids.

The ban on the sale of new ICE vehicles assumes a huge leap in battery technology, burgeoning charging networks, and diving prices. As the deadline approaches, politicians who mandated all this on a wing and a prayer might be feeling a little nervous, except none of them are likely to be around to face the consequences if they are wrong.