‘Indiana Jones’ Destined For Franchise-Worst $300 Million Worldwide Gross

Disney faces it’s fourth theatrical misfire of 2023, after Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny topped a mere $248 million in total global receipts from two weekends of theatrical release. This disastrous outcome means the film is likely destined for a franchise-worst $300+/- million worldwide gross.

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny took $26.5 million in North America over its second weekend, bringing the domestic total to $121 million. International figures are roughly tracking even with stateside numbers, and at the current expected rate we’ll see somewhere in the neighborhood of $150 million for both domestic and foreign final tallies.

Unless Dial of Destiny can push its receipts high enough to top $333 million, it will fail to beat the box office of 1984’s Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, despite having a budget at least ten times that of the earlier picture.

Unfortunately, I don’t expect that to happen, as it appears the high end of probable outcomes for Dial of Destiny is somewhere around perhaps $320 million if it miraculously manages to slow its inevitable weekly slide despite the arrival of Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One this Wednesday. So it looks like it’s Indiana Jones who faces the impossible mission this week.

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Disney, typically the strongest performer every year and especially during summer movie season, has had a particularly tough year. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, The Little Mermaid, Elemental, and now Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny all underperformed significantly, even though they’ve also still managed to bring in a combined roughly $1.5 billion. Only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 at an excellent $840 million has been a big blockbuster success for Disney this year.

But these are some of Disney’s best players — Marvel, Pixar, Lucasfilm, Disney live-action adaptations of animated hits — and were meant to generate upwards of $3.5 billion in worldwide box office, and at least $2.8-3 billion on the lowest end of expectations. And while theatrical attendance still hasn’t returned to pre-pandemic levels, big Disney blockbuster tentpoles in traditionally popular release windows shouldn’t be suffering to this extent compared to the competition in the marketplace.

One important lesson everyone needs to see clearly here and remember is, “superhero fatigue” still isn’t a significant factor, the declines seen in that genre are reflective of broader trends and outcomes in cinema lately. There are certainly other factors at play distinct to the superhero genre — the DCEU’s bad reputation having tainted even Batman’s brand, for example — but the single biggest factor is that audiences are more discerning in what they spend their movie money on nowadays, and it’s not enough to assume branding will be enough to guarantee viewership.

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Movies that don’t know their audience and the details of those demographics, and that fail to properly understand the implications of that data and how to either lean into it or find ways to improve and expand it, will fail at the box office. You must know who your audience is and what they want, as well as where to find them and how to get their attention, and you must know how to deliver not only what they know they want but also what they don’t know they want — in other words, how to pleasantly surprise them within the context of what they want and expect.

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One is a perfect example of succeeding at every level when it comes to knowing and appealing to your audience successfully, and it delivers the sort of summer blockbuster tentpole audiences crave. People remember the previous Mission: Impossible films, and they definitely remember last year’s soaring success story Top Gun: Maverick, and they’ve come to trust this franchise and its star to deliver the goods.

Avatar: The Way of Water is another great example, and perhaps nobody working in film today knows their audience and knows how to deliver for that audience as much as James Cameron. Press and pundits didn’t get it, other filmmakers often didn’t get it, but Cameron got it and his audience knew they could trust him to get it, and he delivered gangbusters.

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When audiences have those sorts of experiences to look forward to, when they are looking at the movies coming up and picking the handful — perhaps four, maybe five — they’ll see all year, they’re going to gravitate towards people and franchises they feel they can count on most. Avatar? Sign us up. Mission: Impossible? We accept the mission. But another DCEU movie? Oh, really, your CEO says it’s great? We’ll catch you on Max, or maybe whatever other streamer you sell it to instead. This is how average mainstream viewers look at the situation now.

And let’s be clear, it’s how viewers should look at things, right? Don’t settle. If you want the best, demand it. Audiences are being trained by the best filmmakers out there and by the increasingly exceptional storytelling on streaming (up until services throw it all away, that is) to want and expect the best, and they’re starting to demand it more often. That’s an oversimplification, but it’s also generally true.

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny by all accounts delivers a wonderful sendoff for Harrison Ford’s action-adventurer, including big fun sequences of spectacle and humor. But it’s aimed at an older audience, it relies heavily on nostalgia and awareness of the previous four movies, it’s a period setting, and the marketing was so conscious of the main target demographics (older males) that it did little to give other demos a reason to show up.

Add in an enormous budget and a summer season release pitting it against more popular franchises with wider demographic appeal, and I think Disney should’ve seen the risks coming a mile away. With half the budget and a less competitive calendar date, plus more in the film and marketing to appeal to wider demographics, and Indiana Jones could’ve had a much more financially successful going away party.

I’ll be back with more updates about Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, plus coverage of Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One’s box office debut, so be sure to check back here again soon, dear readers.