How epic is the Sierra snowpack of 2023? In some places, the tubes that state water officials routinely use to measure the snow’s depth weren’t long enough.
California water officials gathered near Echo Summit south of Lake Tahoe on Monday for one of the most highly anticipated snowpack readings in decades, confirming what an army of snow-sensors scattered across the Sierra already showed: The statewide snowpack is tied with 1952 as the biggest haul since official statewide records began in 1950.
As of Monday morning, the statewide snowpack reached an astonishing 237% of normal compared to historical data for this date. The record-tying snowpack is a stunning turnaround from a year ago, when the official April snowpack measure was just 35% of normal. And it is an alternate universe away from 2015, when then-Gov. Jerry Brown stood on a barren mountaintop to announce the first-ever statewide water restrictions.
Eight years later, the snowpack is so deep that officials knew they might have a little issue with their traditional measuring tools.
“We had to send out guidance to all of our different partners to say that if you need to go down deeper than 240 inches — 20 feet — add on extra tubes. We haven’t had to do this in the past,” said Sean de Guzman, manager of the California Department of Water Resources’ monthly snow surveys. “We have some folks who were around in 1969 (and) 1983, and say this just… it’s way deeper than what it was then.”
Technically, Monday’s official monthly snowpack reading came two days after April 1 — the typical date against which snowpack readings are compared. On April 1, the statewide snowpack measure was at 233% of normal, according to 90 sensors scattered throughout the Sierra range, which was a few percentage points shy of the 1952 record. But since April 1 this year was a Saturday, officials held their manual measurement the next weekday.
Then, over the weekend, something happened that every sentient being in the Sierra has become numb to in the last several months — it snowed even more. A small storm deposited between 4 and 10 inches of fresh snow on the Sierra, according to National Weather Service estimates.
Suddenly, the snowpack record watchers had hope. But despite Monday’s 237% reading, there’s still some suspense for the record books, the state’s water managers cautioned Monday: A number of snow stations have yet to report their official April 1 readings, which takes into account a 10-day window, so this year could still surpass the 1952 record or fall slightly behind.
Here’s the thing about all these snowpack readings: California has way more stations collecting snowpack data now than it did in 1952. And the data they collect with modern technology is far more accurate.
Also, what’s considered ”normal” for an April 1 snowpack reading has changed over time. “Normal” April 1 snowpack in 1952 was calculated after-the-fact based on data from 1946 to 1995. But “normal” nowadays is calculated based on data from 1991 to 2020, a period plagued by many years of drought.
The California Department of Water Resources, which compiles all the snowpack data, has used five different definitions of ”normal” since 1950, making it difficult to easily compare years.
Why, you may ask, do they keep changing the definition of what’s considered normal come April 1? The shifting average is designed “to keep pace with climate change,” according to de Guzman.
If the snowpack figures were all published using the same historical data as reference, how would this year compare?
“Realistically, this year would probably be substantially lower if we used the historical data,” said Andrew Schwartz, lead scientist at the Central Sierra Snow Lab. “The reason why (we don’t use the same range) is climate change, and the new climate normals are updated every 30 years.”
Regardless of how you measure it, though, this year’s massive bounty is great news for the drought, which has ended in most of the Golden State. Around a third of California’s water supply comes from melting snowpack.
But many experts are expressing growing concern that warm temperatures in the Sierra this spring could trigger cataclysmic flooding. They are particularly worried about snowmelt-fueled flooding in the Southern Sierra, where the snowpack was at a record-breaking 306% of normal on Monday.
“Once you get up above some level, you are mostly concerned with how fast it melts rather than how big is the snowpack,” said Jay Lund, professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at UC Davis. “If we get a real warm spell that comes through and melts it all real fast, you’ll see much more flooding potential.”
State and federal officials will continue to actively monitor for possible floods as the snowpack begins melting this spring. The San Joaquin Valley and the Tulare Lake Basin water systems in particular have emerged as regions of concern. The state’s Department of Water Resources Director Karla Nemeth said Monday after years of focusing on water shortages and drought, the department “has rapidly shifted to flood response.”
“This year’s severe storms and flooding,” she said, “is the latest example that California’s climate is becoming more extreme.”
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