Jets vs. Bills odds, analysis and predictions for Sunday’s NFL Week 18 games

After a 3-10 start to the season against the spread, the Jets have covered in their past three games.

The opening line for Sunday’s season finale in Orchard Park against the Bills was eye-popping. Sixteen-and-a-half points! For a team that was 1¹/₂ yards away from beating the Buccaneers? A team that is still playing hard for rookie head coach Robert Saleh? Surely the sharp bettors would hammer that number down. But that never happened, and the line hasn’t budged.

The initial thought here was that though the Bills would clinch the AFC East title with a win, they would accomplish that with a 10-point victory, or seven or three or even one. Thus, there could be some value in the hefty line. But on further review, the pendulum swings toward Buffalo for three main reasons.

No. 1 is the Jets’ injuries. George Fant, who was a revelation at left tackle in the absence of Mekhi Becton, is out, so it could get dicey on the blind side. In addition, Zach Wilson might be missing one of his biggest weapons, Braxton Berrios.

No. 2 is the weather. It is forecast to be wet and windy with a RealFeel of around zero degrees shortly after the 4:25 kickoff. The Jets have been a game bunch, but it’s asking a lot to play in those conditions against a much-better, highly motivated team. And No. 3 is the Jets’ defense, which has given up at least 45 points three times this season. If things start going bad, can you count on this unit to keep things close?

The pick: Bills, -16.5.

Washington Football Team (-7) over NEW YORK GIANTS

Joe Judge’s press conference after the desultory 29-3 loss in Chicago was strange, but at least it was more interesting than watching the Giants play. So the players “quit” on Pat Shurmur in 2019? That team won two of its final three games and scored 94 points in them. Judge’s team should quit so well. His squad has one win and 72 points in the past seven games.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS

Both teams are still in it, but need Indianapolis to lose at Jacksonville, and the deflation will be equal if the Colts were to go out to a big lead. Line seems pegged to Lamar Jackson playing for the Ravens but that’s iffy, so there may be some Steelers value. And there’s still the trusty Mike Tomlin underdog angle — 45-23-2 ATS in my unofficial running count.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-6) over Cincinnati Bengals

Talk about a team that figures to shut it all down this week. The Bengals already are without Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon. Can’t imagine they would risk injury to Ja’Marr Chase. It’s been a dud of a season for the Browns, but Case Keenum is capable of leading them past what’s left of the Bengals.

Green Bay Packers (-4) over DETROIT LIONS

The Lions are 10-6 ATS with a 2-13-1 record, so you know they’ll come to play, but much of that spread record has come with lines of a touchdown or more. This one’s artificially low because it likely will be Jordan Love replacing or relieving Aaron Rodgers. Matt LaFleur is still going to try to give Love the means to be successful.

Chicago Bears (+5.5) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Soon-to-be-fired Bears coach Matt Nagy was planning to start Justin Fields, but the young QB ended up on the COVID list, so he’ll try for a third straight win with Nick Foles or Andy Dalton. Even though Kirk Cousins is back, the Vikings still have only one double-digit win all season, so this small spread could end up mattering.

Indianapolis Colts (-15.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Some Jaguars fans will be wearing clown wigs with owner Shad Khan’s handlebar mustache to protest the terrible 2-14 record. Their last cover was a 23-17 loss at Indianapolis in mid-November. They lost their subsequent seven games by an average of 19.4 points.

HOUSTON TEXANS (+10.5) over Tennessee Titans

A win would clinch the bye for Tennessee, but as mentioned earlier, a one-point win would serve the purpose. Doubt Derrick Henry will be in for anything more than a test drive. And the Texans had a stunning 22-13 win at Tennessee in November.

New England Patriots (-6.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

Miami’s dream of going from 1-7 to the playoffs died hard last week at Tennessee. Hard to bounce back from that to play one final game. The Patriots would see their motivation disappear should the Bills go up big on the Jets, but Bill Belichick can keep his players focused on finishing the game.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-8.5) over Carolina Panthers

Bruce Arians says he wants the No. 2 NFC seed and will play Tom Brady and the starters. Things are a little on edge after the Antonio Brown situation and the near-loss to the Jets, so the Bucs could be looking to make this an easy one. The Panthers are one of the must-fade teams at the end of this season.

ATLANTA FALCONS (+3.5) over New Orleans Saints

Sean Payton’s team has had a trying season, but would clinch a wild-card berth with a win and 49ers loss to the Rams, which is quite possible. Still, the Saints are a low-scoring team and the better quarterback, Matt Ryan, is playing against them.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6.5) over Seattle Seahawks

Cardinals are also watching the scoreboard, needing a Rams loss for a shot at the NFC West title. Seattle has injury issues on the offensive line, and this could go sideways if the Cardinals have a free path to Russell Wilson.

San Francisco 49ers (+4.5) over LOS ANGELES RAMS

The teams have different problems at quarterback. For the 49ers, Jimmy Garoppolo will play with a bum thumb or they’ll turn to rookie Trey Lance. For the Rams, Matthew Stafford has been bad of late. Both teams have motivation, but survival usually trumps seeding.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (+3) over Los Angeles Chargers

This is the one that’s actually a play-in game, as either team gets in with a win. The Chargers also would clinch with a tie, and there’s a crazier scenario in which both teams could make the playoffs with a tie. So it’s nice to be getting some points in case any of that were to play out.

Best bets: Bears, Bills, Falcons.
Lock of the week: Bears (Locks 10-6 in 2021)
Last week: 9-7 overall, 1-2 Best Bets.