LA County COVID cases begin to decline, but deaths rising

There are signs that the latest COVID-19 surge may be leveling off, with Los Angeles County’s seven-day average case rate down 21% compared to last week, health officials said on Thursday, Dec. 15 — though that good news was tempered by rising death rates that are ahead of where they were this time last year.

The current state of this year’s winter surge has been a concern for weeks.

But Thursday’s mix of hopeful and worrisome trends makes it difficult to judge where the surge will go from here. Cases and daily hospitalizations, for example, both declined this week, according to Thursday’s data from the  Department of Public Health, but the county remains in the high-transmission category, as determined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“Despite this decline, current cases are still up by about 120% from one month ago,” county Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said during a Thursday media briefing. “While we’re relieved to no longer see steep increases, this is in the context of knowing that cases are severely undercounted with home tests.”

Hospital capacity is also dwindling, Ferrer said.

And while the rising COVID-19 death rates aren’t entirely surprising — since that metric typically lags behind cases and hospitalizations — where it is relative to last December underscores the threat the coronavirus still poses.

Ferrer said the rise in deaths this week was a “troubling increase.”

The county reported 3,192 new COVID-19 infections on Thursday, giving the county a cumulative total from throughout the pandemic of 3,595,218.

There were 1,256 COVID-19-positive patients in county hospitals as of Thursday, according to state figures, down from 1,304 a day earlier. Of those patients, 131 were being treated in intensive care units, down slightly from 135 on Wednesday.

And another 22 COVID-19-related deaths were also reported — including the county’s 20 pediatric fatality — bringing the death toll since the pandemic began to 34,390.

The reported seven-day case rate, though, was 204 per 100,000 residents, down from 258 per 100,000 residents last week — a 21% decline. COVID-19 hospital admission rates also trended downward, with an average of 197 per day – a 7% decrease from last week.

But that only tells part of the story.

While those numbers are well below what they were during the first and deadliest winter surge in 2020 — when the public lacked the widespread protection of vaccines they now enjoy — they are actually higher than last year around this time.

In mid-December 2021, for example, the seven-day case rate was about 113 per 100,000 residents.

The number of hospital patients with COVID-19, meanwhile, hovered around 700 this time last year.

Then there are deaths.

The average number of daily COVID-19-related deaths reported this week was 16, Ferrer said, double that of two weeks ago. The county’s death rate has already surpassed levels seen in December 2021.

“We’re concerned about the possibility of seeing even higher increases in these numbers a few weeks from now,” Ferrer said.

The comparatively high death numbers are due, in part, to this year’s winter surge occurring earlier than last year, Ferrer said.

Last winter’s surge peaked in early January when cases hit 380 per 100,000 residents.

But the winter holidays — a time of mass gathering — are still ahead, with Hanukkah set to begin on Sunday, Dec. 18, and Christmas a week later.

“Our data tells us that those dying from COVID related illnesses are likely more vulnerable due to advanced age, compromised immune systems or lack of access to health affirming resources,” Ferrer said. “Surpassing 2021’s winter death numbers is a clear sign that the impact of COVID-19 is still being felt across communities today.”

Another troubling data point is the low availability of hospital beds.

As of Monday, Dec. 12, there were 242 available adult beds, including ward and ICU beds, across all of LA County. The average number of beds available in December so far is the lowest seen in four years, Ferrer said.

There are several possible factors behind the low availability, she added.